一. Isiqingatha sesibini sengxelo esisiseko

1.1 Uqikelelo lweMveliso

Ngokutsho kophando lweLongzhong Information, ishishini lemveliso ye-aniline liceba ukwakha iitoni ezingama-385,000 zamandla emveliso kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2023, kwaye akukho sicwangciso samandla okurhoxisa. Amandla emveliso amatsha asasazwa kakhulu eMzantsi China, kwaye ishishini elicetywayo lixhotyiswe ngezixhobo zemveliso ezisezantsi, uphuhliso oluphezulu lwekhonkco lemizi-mveliso, kunye nokunciphisa iindleko zokuthenga nezokuthutha kunye nezinye iindleko zokusebenza.

Emva kokukhululwa kwamandla amatsha emveliso ye-aniline kwixesha elizayo, kuya kuyitshintsha kakhulu indlela yokubonelela nge-aniline yasekhaya, kwaye imveliso ye-aniline eMzantsi China iya kusasazeka kwiifektri ezikufutshane ezikufutshane, nto leyo eya kunciphisa ngempumelelo iindleko zokuthengwa kwezinto eziluhlaza ezisezantsi. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, iYantai Wanhua yaceba ukuhlaziya, kwaye zonke izixhobo zayo ze-aniline-MDI zayeka, okanye zachaphazela ukunikezelwa kwe-aniline kwabanye babathengi bayo bexesha elide. Ukongeza, iFujian Wanhua iceba ukuyivelisa ngoSeptemba, nto leyo enefuthe elikhulu kwixabiso le-aniline emazantsi, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso le-aniline kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka libe yi-9000-12000 yuan/ton.

1.2 Uqikelelo lokusetyenziswa

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, izixhobo zokulungisa i-MDI ze-polymerization zasekhaya zigxile ngo-Agasti, ngoNovemba nangoDisemba, isixhobo siphela kulindeleke ukuba sinciphe kakhulu, ukongeza kwizixhobo zaphesheya ngoJulayi nango-Agasti kukho iiseti ezininzi zokugcinwa kwezixhobo, ukuncipha kokunikezelwa kwezixhobo, ixabiso lilonke lasekhaya linokuba nokunyuka okuncinci, kodwa ngo-Agasti nangoSeptemba ngenxa yokufika kwehlobo, imozulu eshushu kakhulu inokuchaphazela umthwalo ophantsi, umda wamandla, imveliso encinci. Kunye neshishini lezixhobo zasekhaya kwixesha elingaphandle kwexesha, ixabiso kunzima ukulixhasa. Ngo-Okthobha nangoNovemba, njengoko amashishini ezixhobo zasekhaya kunye neepayipi ezisezantsi engena kwixesha lesiqhelo, kwaye kulindeleke ukugcinwa okunengqiqo kwezinye izixhobo, kunokwenzeka ukuqhubeka nokunyuka. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ingqwalasela ephambili kukuncipha kokunikezelwa kunye nokulandelela imfuno ecaleni. Xa ucinga ukuba ixabiso le-MDI eyenziwe nge-polymer kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ligcinwa kwi-14300-16300 yuan/ton, imfuno kulindeleke ukuba ibuye kunyaka, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka liphezulu kancinci kunenqanaba kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kwaye ixabiso elilindelekileyo ligcinwa kwi-15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Uqikelelo lokungeniswa kwempahla ngaphandle/ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngaphandle

Okwangoku, ukunikezelwa kwe-aniline kunye nemfuno yasekhaya zilungelelene, kwaye umdla wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe uyaphela. Nangona iindleko zemveliso ye-aniline yasekhaya zinciphile, imfuno ephantsi inamandla, nto leyo exhasa ixabiso eliphezulu le-aniline. Kulindeleke ukuba ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-aniline kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka abuyi kutshintsha kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kodwa akukacaci ukuba i-aniline engaphezulu iya kuthengiswa phesheya emva kokuba iFujian Wanhua iqalisiwe ukusebenza.

1.4 Uqikelelo lwebhalansi yobonelelo kunye nemfuno

Ixabiso lesiqingatha sesibini soqikelelo

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ixabiso eliqikelelweyo le-benzene ecocekileyo yi-6280-6800 yuan/ton, ebonisa umkhwa wokunyuka kokuqala uze emva koko wehle.

Ngokuphathelele ioyile ekrwada, amaxabiso eoyile kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka abonise ithuba lokunyuka kwakhona, ebonisa umkhwa wokunyuka kuqala aze aphinde ehle kwakhona iyonke, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lenyanga linokutshintshatshintsha ukusuka kwi-75-78 yeedola zaseMelika/ibhareli, kunye noluhlu oluncinci lokuguquguquka.

Ngokuphathelele unikezelo, uninzi olukhulu lokwandiswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo ngo-2023 lugqityiwe kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kunye neetoni ezingaphezulu kwezigidi ezi-3 zeeyunithi ezintsha ze-petroleum benzene kunye ne-hydrobenzene eziqalisiweyo, kwaye imveliso ye-benzene ecocekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kulindeleke ukuba ibonise ukwanda okukhulu xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kuphela iitoni ezili-100,000 zomthamo we-Anqing Petrochemical ezandisiweyo ngoJulayi, kwaye iitoni ezingama-200,000 zeLongjiang Chemical zakhiwa ngokutsha ekupheleni konyaka. Nangona kunjalo, i-benzene ene-hydrogenated isenayo i-Puyang Zhonghui iitoni ezingama-500,000, iChongqing Huafeng iitoni ezingama-200,000, iNingxia Tongde Love iitoni ezili-100,000, iZaozhuang Zhenxing iitoni ezingama-200,000, iHenan Jinyuan Phase II iitoni ezingama-200,000 kunye nezinye iitoni ezili-1.2 lezigidi zezixhobo ezintsha ezicwangciselwe ukuveliswa kwikota yesine.

Ngokuphathelele imfuno, imveliso esezantsi ye-benzene ecocekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka yayigxininiswe, kuquka iseti yesine ye-styrene ye-Zhejiang Petrochemical, i-styrene ye-Anqing Petrochemical, i-Hengli new phenol kunye ne-adipic acid, i-Fujian Wanhua aniline, i-Lusi, i-Shenyuan, i-Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam kunye nezinye izixhobo ezicwangciselwe ukuqaliswa ukusebenza, kunye ne-Qingdao Bay, i-Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, eyamiswa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Ukongeza kwi-downstream yendabuko, imfuno ye-octane evela kwi-ethylbenzene kunye ne-cyclohexane kulindeleke ukuba inike ukonyusa ukusetyenziswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, iintlobo ezisezantsi ngokubanzi zihlangabezane nokwehla komthwalo weshishini emva kokwandiswa komthamo, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kwakuphantsi kunomthamo wemveliso. Kwimeko yokusetyenziswa kokugqibela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka akukabi nethemba, kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kuhlaziywe kakhulu kunexabiso lethiyori.

Ngokuphathelele ukungeniswa kwemveliso kwamanye amazwe, imfuno yesiphelo eMelika naseYurophu iyaqhubeka nokuthotywa, kwaye incopho yokuhamba ehlotyeni eMelika kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka iya kuphela ngoSeptemba, ukuzimisela kweMpuma-mpuma yeAsia ukuthumela i-benzene ecocekileyo eTshayina kulindeleke ukuba kwande kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye umthamo wokungeniswa ungabuyela kwinqanaba leetoni ezingama-250-300,000 ngenyanga.

Lilonke, ixabiso leoyile ekrwada kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka lizinzile, kwaye inkxaso yeendleko ihlanganisiwe. Isixhobo semveliso esisezantsi sidlula ukufakwa okutsha kwe-benzene yepetroleum kunye ne-hydrobenzene, kodwa izinga lokusebenza lokwenyani kulindeleke ukuba lehle lilonke, kwaye umthamo wokungenisa kulindeleke ukuba unyuke, ngoko ke icala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno ye-benzene ecocekileyo liphuculwe, kodwa uluhlu lulinganiselwe. Ixabiso le-benzene ecocekileyo lilindelwe kwikota yesithathu ngenxa yokubuya kwezixhobo zokugcina ezisezantsi kunye nokwakhiwa kwezixhobo ezintsha ukuze kufumaneke amandla okunyuka kwamaxabiso, kodwa ngenxa yenzuzo ebuthathaka yokungadibanisi esezantsi, i-benzene ecocekileyo inyuke phezulu kwesezantsi, ngokukhululwa kwamandla emveliso ye-hydrobenzene kwikota yesine, icala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno liphinde lajika laba kukubonelela okuninzi, ngoko ke ixabiso kulindeleke ukuba libonise umkhwa wokuhla.

Kwikota yesibini, i-aniline yachaphazeleka yimfuno ebuthathaka yaza yaqala ukungena kumjelo osezantsi. Ngokusekelwe kuhlengahlengiso olucwangcisiweyo lweYantai Wanhua ngo-Agasti, ukuba isicwangciso sohlengahlengiso sizalisekiswa njengoko bekucwangcisiwe, sinokukwazi ukutsala imakethi ye-aniline. Nangona kunjalo, ngoSeptemba, iiyunithi zeFujian Wanhua kunye neChongqing Changfeng 2 zaqaliswa ukusebenza, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kwe-aniline eMzantsi China nakuMzantsi-ntshona weTshayina kwanda kakhulu, nto leyo eyatyebisa imithombo yokuthenga ejikelezileyo. Ngokubanzi, ikota yesibini kunye nekota yesithathu yemakethi ye-aniline zibuthathaka, kodwa kwikota yesine, ezinye iindawo ezisezantsi zaqala ukufumana iiodolo zonyaka olandelayo, imfuno yezinto ezikrwada inokunyuka okuthile, ikota yesine yamaxabiso e-aniline kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele umva xa ithelekiswa nekota yesithathu.