一.Isiqingatha sesibini soqikelelo olusisiseko

1.1 Uqikelelo lweMveliso

Ngokutsho kophando loLwazi lwe-Longzhong, ishishini lemveliso ye-aniline liceba ukwakha iitoni ezingama-385,000 zomthamo wemveliso kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2023, kwaye akukho sicwangciso samandla sokurhoxisa. Umthamo omtsha wemveliso usasazwa kakhulu eMzantsi China, kwaye ishishini elicetywayo lixhotyiswe ngezixhobo zemveliso esezantsi, ukuphuhliswa kwesikali somxokelelwane wezoshishino, kunye nokunciphisa ukuthengwa kunye nokuthutha kunye nezinye iindleko zokusebenza.

Emva kokukhululwa komthamo omtsha we-aniline kwixesha elizayo, iya kutshintsha kakhulu ipateni yokubonelela nge-aniline yasekhaya, kwaye imveliso ye-aniline eMzantsi China iya kukhanya kwiifektri ezijikelezayo ezisezantsi kumgama okufutshane, ukunciphisa ngokufanelekileyo iindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla ekrwada. . Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, i-Yantai Wanhua iceba ukugqithisa, kwaye zonke izixhobo zayo ze-aniline-MDI zayeka, okanye zichaphazela ukunikezelwa kwe-aniline kwabanye abathengi bayo bexesha elide. Ukongeza, uFujian Wanhua uceba ukubeka kwimveliso ngoSeptemba, enempembelelo enkulu kwixabiso le-aniline emzantsi, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso le-aniline kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka linokuba yi-9000-12000 yuan / itoni

1.2 Uqikelelo losetyenziso

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, izixhobo zokugcinwa kwe-polymerization zasekhaya ze-MDI zigxininiswe ngo-Agasti, ngoNovemba noDisemba, isixhobo ngokubanzi kulindeleke ukuba sicuthe kakhulu, ngaphezu kwezixhobo zangaphandle ngoJulayi no-Agasti kukho iiseti ezininzi zokugcinwa kwesixhobo, ngokubanzi. ukucutheka konikezelo, ixabiso lasekhaya lilonke linokuba nokunyuswa okuncinci, kodwa ngo-Agasti noSeptemba ngenxa yokufika kwehlobo, imozulu yobushushu obuphezulu inokuchaphazela umthwalo osezantsi, ukuncipha kwamandla, imveliso enyiniweyo. Kunye noshishino lwezixhobo zasekhaya kwi-off-season, ixabiso kunzima ukuxhasa. Ngo-Oktobha nangoNovemba, kunye nezixhobo zekhaya ezisezantsi kunye namashishini emibhobho angena kwixesha eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo, kunye nokugcinwa okunengqiqo kwezinye izixhobo kulindeleke, kunokwenzeka ukuqhubeka nokunyuka. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ugxininiso oluphambili kukuncitshiswa kokubonelela kunye nokulandelwa kwecala lokufuna. Ukuqwalasela ukuba ixabiso le-MDI ye-polymerized kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ligcinwe kwi-14300-16300 yuan / ton, imfuno ilindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwakhona ngonyaka, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka liphezulu kancinci kunomgangatho. kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kwaye ixabiso elilindelekileyo ligcinwa kwi-15500-17000 yuan / ton.

1.3 Uqikelelo olupheleleyo lokuthumela ngaphandle/uthunyelo ngaphandle

Okwangoku, unikezelo lwangaphakathi kunye nemfuno ye-aniline ilungelelene, kwaye umdla wokuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle uyancipha. Ngaphandle kokunciphisa iindleko zemveliso ye-aniline yasekhaya, imfuno esezantsi yomlambo inamandla, enenkxaso ethile kwixabiso eliphezulu le-aniline. Kulindeleke ukuba ubungakanani bokuthengiswa kwe-aniline kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka abuyi kutshintsha kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kodwa akucaci ukuba i-aniline eyongezelelweyo iya kuthengiswa phesheya emva kokuba i-Fujian Wanhua iqalile ukusebenza. .

1.4 Ubonelelo kunye noqikelelo lwebango lomncono

二.Ixabiso lesiqingatha sesibini soqikelelo

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ixabiso eliqikelelweyo le-benzene ecocekileyo yi-6280-6800 yuan/ton, ebonisa umkhwa wokunyuka kokuqala nokuwa.

Ngokubhekiselele kwi-oyile ekrwada, amaxabiso eoyile kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka abeke ithuba lokuphinda abuyele, abonise umkhwa wokunyuka kuqala aze aphinde ahle kwakhona xa ewonke, kwaye ixabiso lenyanga eliphakathi lingaguquguquka kuluhlu lwe-75-78 US. iidola / umphanda, kunye noluhlu oluncinci lokuguquguquka.

Ngokubhekiselele kubonelelo, uninzi lokwandiswa kwebenzene ecocekileyo ngo-2023 kugqitywe kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kunye netoni ezingaphezulu kwezigidi ezi-3 zeeyunithi ezintsha zepetroleum benzene kunye ne-hydrobenzene ziyasetyenziswa, kunye nebenzene emsulwa. imveliso kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kulindeleke ukuba ibonise ukwanda okubanzi xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kuphela iitoni ze-100,000 ze-Anqing Petrochemical umthamo zandiswe ngoJulayi, kwaye i-200,000 yeetoni ze-Longjiang Chemical yayisanda kwakhiwa ekupheleni konyaka. Nangona kunjalo, i-Hydrogen Debene isekhona i-puyang zhongshui 500,000 ye-huafeng 200,000 i-Tons, i-nqunuz ye-Tons, i-Ningxia i-Tons, i-Hingxia i-Tons, i-Hingxia i-Tons, i-Hingxia iceba ukuveliswa kwezesine ikota.

Ngokwemfuno, ukuveliswa kwemveliso ephantsi kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kwakugxininiswe, kuquka isethi yesine ye-styrene ye-Zhejiang Petrochemical, i-styrene ye-Anqing Petrochemical, i-Hengli entsha ye-phenol kunye ne-adipic acid, i-Fujian Wanhua aniline, i-Lusi, i-Shenyuan. , I-Baling Petrochemical entsha ye-caprolactam kunye nezinye izixhobo ezicetywayo ukuba zisetyenziswe, kunye neQingdao Bay, i-Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, eyahlehliswa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Ukongeza kwindlela esezantsi esezantsi, imfuno ye-octane evela ethylbenzene kunye ne-cyclohexane kulindeleke ukuba inikeze ukonyusa kusetyenziso olusulungekileyo lwebenzene. Nangona kunjalo, kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, iintlobo ezisezantsi zomlambo ziye zadibana nokuhla komthwalo weshishini emva kokwandiswa komthamo, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo bekungaphantsi komthamo wemveliso. Kwimeko yokusetyenziswa kokuphela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ayikaniki themba, kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kuya kuhlaziywa kakhulu phantsi kwexabiso lethiyori.

Ngokuphathelele ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, imfuno yokugcina e-United States naseYurophu iyaqhubeka nokudandatheka, kwaye ukunyuka kwehlobo lokuhamba e-United States kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kuya kuphela ngoSeptemba, ukuzimisela kwe-Northeast Asia ukuthumela i-benzene ecocekileyo e-China. kulindeleke ukuba inyuke kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye umthamo wokungenisa ungabuyela kwinqanaba le-250-300,000 yeetoni / ngenyanga.

Ngokubanzi, ixabiso leoli ekrwada kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka lilinganiselwe, kwaye ukuxhaswa kweendleko kuhlanganiswe. Isixhobo soveliso sethiyori esisezantsi sigqitha ukufakelwa kwepetroleum benzene kunye nehydrobenzene, kodwa elona zinga lokusebenza lilindeleke ukuba lehle lilonke, kwaye umthamo wokungenisa kulindeleke ukuba unyuke, ngoko ke unikezelo kunye nemfuno yecala lebenzene esulungekileyo liyaphuculwa, kodwa uluhlu lulinganiselwe. Ixabiso le-benzene ecocekileyo lilindeleke kwikota yesithathu ngenxa yokubuyiswa kwezixhobo zokulungisa ezisezantsi kunye nokwakhiwa kwezixhobo ezitsha zokufumana amandla okunyuka kwexabiso, kodwa ngenxa yenzuzo ebuthathaka engaphantsi kwe-non-integration, ibenzene ecocekileyo yavuka phezulu ephantsi, kunye nokukhululwa komthamo wemveliso ye-hydrobenzene kwikota yesine, icala lonikezelo kunye nemfuno liphinde lajika kubonelelo oluninzi, ngoko ixabiso lilindeleke ukuba libonise ukuhla.

Kwikota yesibini, i-aniline yachatshazelwa yimfuno ebuthathaka kwaye yaqala ukungena kumjelo osezantsi. Ngokusekelwe kwisicwangciso esicwangcisiweyo se-Yantai Wanhua ngo-Agasti, ukuba isicwangciso sokulungiswa sizalisekile njengoko sicwangcisiwe, sinokukwazi ukutsala imarike ye-aniline. Nangona kunjalo, ngoSeptemba, i-Fujian Wanhua kunye ne-Chongqing Changfeng iiyunithi ze-2 zafakwa ekusebenzeni, kwaye ukunikezelwa kwe-aniline eMzantsi China nakumazantsi-ntshona e-China kwanda kakhulu, kuphucula imithombo ejikelezayo yokuthengwa kwempahla. Ngokubanzi, ikota yesibini kunye nekota yesithathu yemarike ye-aniline ibuthathaka, kodwa kwikota yesine, enye i-downstream yaqala ukufumana ii-odolo zonyaka ozayo, imfuno yezinto eziluhlaza inokunyuka okuthile, ikota yesine yexabiso le-aniline kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwakhona. xa kuthelekiswa nekota yesithathu.