Amaxabiso eoyile e-WTI ayaqhubeka nokujikeleza malunga ne-45 yeedola, kodwa utshintsho lwakutsha nje kumbindi womxhuzulane luyabonakala. Unikezelo olwandisiweyo lweSaudi Arabia kwiimarike zaseAsia emva kwentlanganiso ye-Opec ibonise ithemba layo malunga nemfuno yemarike.
Ulawulo lweTrump luye lwabhenela kwiNkundla ePhakamileyo emva kokuba ubungqina obutsha buveze ukuba kukho iingxaki zokubala kunyulo nangona ukutshintshwa kwamandla emva kokhetho lwase-us. Isicwangciso soncedo lwezoqoqosho lwase-us sobhubhane kwakhona siphantsi kothethathethwano, kwaye imarike ijonge phambili kwisiphumo.
Ubhubhani wehlabathi lonke usanwenwa. Kubekho iindaba ezilungileyo nezimbi ngaphambili kwesitofu sokugonya, kwaye iyonke, umhla wokuphehlelelwa uyeza.
Ukuthunyelwa kwe-China ngoNovemba (ngokwemigaqo ye-DOLLAR) kwakunyuka i-21.1% ukusuka kunyaka odlulileyo, kulindeleke ukuba inyuke nge-9.5%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-11.4% ukusuka kunyaka odlulileyo, kwaye ukuthengiswa kwempahla kwakunyuka nge-4.5% ukusuka kunyaka ngaphambili, kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke i-4.3% ukusuka. unyaka ngaphambili; I-surplus yorhwebo ifike kwirekhodi ephezulu ye-75.42 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ukusuka kwi-58.44 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ngokwemiqathango ye-yuan, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke ngeepesenti ze-14.9, ukusuka kwi-7.6 ekhulwini.
Uqikelelo lwentengiso yeekhemikhali ezithile:
1. Uqikelelo: Isixa semethanol ekujikelezweni kwezibuko sinyuke kakhulu kwimpelaveki ephelileyo. Uluhlu lwabavelisi kwiindawo zokuvelisa ezisemantla ziphantsi kwaye izinga lokusebenza ngokubanzi alitshintshi kakhulu. Ukuba akukho miba mikhulu emihle, kulindeleke ukuba imethanol isaza kuqhutyelwa phambili kukothuka kule veki.
2. I-Forecast: i-toluene, isityalo sasekhaya se-xylene siqala phantsi, imfuno epheleleyo ibuthathaka. I-inventri yePort iyaqhubeka ukuwa. Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso leoli kunamandla. Kulindeleke kule veki itoluene yasekhaya, ukothuka kwentengiso yexylene yomelele kancinane.
3. Uqikelelo: UMLINGANISO wokusebenza kwabavelisi bePVC uphuculwe, kodwa i-odolo yangaphambili ayikagqitywa, kwaye ubungakanani bendawo yemarike ekhoyo buncinci. Emantla, ngenxa yokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nezinye izizathu, imfuno esezantsi yomlambo iyancipha kancinci. Ukuthengisa indawo esezantsi ingquzulwano ngamaxabiso aphezulu kodwa kufuneka nje kuzinziswe. Ekupheleni kweveki edlulileyo, i-rally yemalike yemali yanciphisa, imarike kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokuguquguquka okuphezulu kule veki, kwakhona kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba ikhontrakthi yekamva likaJanuwari isesemngciphekweni wokuguquguquka okukhulu.
4. I-Forecast: Kwiveki ephelileyo, i-acrylic acid kunye ne-ester supply iqinile kwaye ihambelana nezinto eziluhlaza ezikhuphuka phantsi kweendaba ezilungileyo ukuqhubeka ukomeleza. Okwangoku, unikezelo lwendawo lusaqinile, abavelisi abayi kunciphisa ixabiso, kufuneka nje balandele imeko esezantsi ilungile. I-Acrylic acid kunye ne-ester ilindeleke kule veki indawo yemarike yokuqhubela phambili umsebenzi oqinileyo wokugqiba.
5. I-Forecast: Amaxabiso e-maleic anhydride ehle ngokukhawuleza kwaye ngokukhawuleza kwiveki ephelileyo, evelisa kwakhona imeko ye-roller coaster. Ngenxa yolindelo lwemfuno engqongqo esezantsi, abavelisi be-anhydride yamadoda banepleyiti yokutywina ukuze banyuke intshukumo. Le ndibano kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke kule veki.
I-6, ukusilela kwezixhobo zangaphandle ukuvalwa, kudityaniswa nenkxaso yeendleko ezomeleleyo, imarike ye-styrene yamkele ukuphinda kuphindwe ekuqaleni kweveki. Nangona kunjalo, iiyunithi zasekhaya kwimveliso, kwaye imfuno elandelayo ibuthathaka, kuqikelelwa ukuba imarike ye-styrene iya kulinganiselwa kwixesha elifutshane.
7. Ukungabikho kolungelelwaniso phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno, kuqikelelwa ukuba imarike ye-acetone iya kuba negumbi elincinci lokunyuka kwexesha elifutshane.
8. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imakethi ye-DOP inokuba sezantsi ngexesha elifutshane ngenxa yokukhutshwa kweendleko kunye nokucotha kwemfuno esezantsi.
9, ithuba lethuba ukuba akukho luvuselelo lulungileyo, qikelela ukunyuka kwexesha elifutshane kwimakethi ye-phthalic anhydride kunzima kakhulu.
10. Ngokusekwe kunikezelo olubuthathaka kunye nemfuno yemeko, kuqikelelwa ukuba imakethi ye-MMA inokuguquguquka kuluhlu olumxinwa kwixesha elifutshane.
11. Inkxaso yeendleko ezinamandla, kodwa ukunikezelwa kwekhaya kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke. Kuqikelelwa ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, imarike ye-phenol inokujongana ikakhulu nezothuso.
I-12, i-periphery ilungile, ukothuka kwendawo ye-PTA kwiveki ephelileyo yomelele. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yeziseko ezibuthathaka ngokwentelekiso, kuqikelelwa ukuba imakethi yePTA iya kulinganiselwa kwixesha elifutshane.
I-13, inkxaso yeendleko yomelele, kodwa indima ye-downstream push ibanzi, kuqikelelwa ukuba imarike ye-benzene ecocekileyo kwixesha elifutshane okanye iya kuba yimbumba eqinile.
14. Icala lokubonelela libonisa into ethile enhle, kodwa ukungabikho kwentsebenziswano esebenzayo kunye nemfuno, kuqikelelwa ukuba imarike ye-tianjiao iya kugungqiswa kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, ingqalelo kwisikhokelo sezinto ezithintekayo.
Kwiveki ephelileyo, imarike ye-acetic yasekhaya iqhubekile nokunyuka. Okwangoku, i-factory sele iqinile ekuhanjisweni, idibene nokuvalwa okungalindelekanga kwesityalo se-BP e-Nanjing, icala lokubonelela liqiniswa ngakumbi. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwexabiso lemarike kunye nokuchasana okunamandla kwi-downstream, kulindeleke ukuba imarike ingacotha kule veki xa kuthelekiswa neveki ephelileyo.
16. Imarike yebutanone yasekhaya inyuke kakhulu kwiveki ephelileyo. Umzi-mveliso awunaxinzelelo lwe-inventri, kunye nomoya wophando osezantsi wokuphucula, ukuya kwimarike kunye nokuthengwa kwempahla ephakathi, eqhutywa ngumoya wokuthenga, kulindeleke ukuba imarike isenokunyuka kule veki.
Ngomhla we-17, kwiveki ephelileyo, ukothuka kwemarike ye-ethylene glycol yasekhaya yomelele. Ukuguquguquka kokuqina kwamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe; Okwangoku, ukuqhubeka kwezibuko ukuya kwizibuko kumbalwa; Nangona ezinye iiyunithi ze-ethylene glycol zaphinda zaqalwa, kwakusekho ezinye iiyunithi ezilungiswayo kunye nokucuthwa okungalunganga, kwaye ukongezwa konikezelo bekungaphantsi kunoko bekulindelekile. Isiphelo se-polyester esezantsi siqala ukugcina ukusebenza kwemfuno ephezulu, ezinzileyo. Kulindeleke ukuba ukuhlanganiswa kwekhefu le-glycol emva kwemini kunokuba namandla.
Ngomhla we-18, kwiveki ephelileyo, i-diethylene glycol yasekhaya i-volatility callback. Ukuguquguquka kokuqina kwamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe; Okwangoku, umthwalo oqalayo wofakelo lwasekhaya uhlala uphantsi, ukuzaliswa kwakhona kobuninzi be-port-to-ship bulinganiselwe, kwaye imozulu engathandekiyo ichaphazela ukuhla okuqhubekayo koluhlu lwe-port, ngoko ke ishishini le-resin esezantsi lithande ukuba buthathaka. Ukuqiniswa kokutshatyalaliswa kweemarike kulindeleke ukuba kube ngakumbi kule veki.
19. Ukuzinzisa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe; Ikamva eliphezulu likhulisa indawo; Uluhlu lwe-Petrochemicals lunyukile xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elidlulileyo; Ingxabano ephezulu esezantsi, kufuneka nje uthenge; Izinga lokusebenza kwamashishini asekhaya liphezulu, uxinzelelo lobonelelo lusephakathi. Ukushwankathela, kulindeleke ukuba kule veki ukuguquguquka kokuguquguquka kwemarike yePE yasekhaya kunokwenzeka.
20. Ukumanyanisa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe; Ikamva lavuka; Izinga lokuthengiswa kwepetrochemical liyancipha; Imfuno esezantsi ye-off-season yendabuko iya kuza, idinga nje ukuthatha iimpahla; Ilahleko yokulondolozwa kweyunithi itshintsha kancinci. Ukushwankathela, kulindeleke ukuba imarike yePP kule veki incinci yokudibanisa kunokwenzeka.