Ngaba indawo yentengiso yezichumiso ezihlanganisiweyo iya kuphucula ngo-2024? Ngaba imarike iya kuguquguquka? Oku kulandelayo luhlalutyo olunzulu lwendlela yexesha elizayo yesichumiso esihlanganisiweyo ngokwembono yemeko-bume enkulu, umgaqo-nkqubo, unikezelo kunye nepateni yemfuno, iindleko kunye nenzuzo, kunye nohlalutyo lwemeko yokhuphiswano lweshishini.

1. Ukuchacha koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuyacotha, kwaye uqoqosho lwaseTshayina lujongene namathuba kunye nemingeni

Phantsi kweempembelelo zemingcipheko emininzi efana ne-unilateralism, i-geopolitics, iingxwabangxwaba zomkhosi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, amatyala ehlabathi kunye nohlengahlengiso lwekhonkco loshishino, ukukhula korhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye notyalo-mali kuye kwacotha kakhulu, kwaye ukuchacha koqoqosho lwehlabathi ngo-2024 kuyacotha kwaye akulingani, kunye nokungaqiniseki. zisanda ngakumbi.

Kwangaxeshanye, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luya kujongana namathuba amaninzi kunye nemingeni. Elona thuba likhulu lisekukhuthazweni okuqhubekayo “kweziseko zophuhliso ezitsha” kunye nezicwangciso “zomjikelo ophindwe kabini”. Le migaqo-nkqubo mibini iza kukhuthaza ngamandla uphuculo lwemizi-mveliso yasekhaya kwaye yandise amandla okuqhuba uqoqosho lwangaphakathi. Kwangaxeshanye, indlela yehlabathi yokukhuselwa korhwebo isaqhuba, nto leyo izisa uxinzelelo olungeluncinci kwiimveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kweTshayina.

Ngokwembono yoqikelelo olukhulu lokusingqongileyo, amathuba okuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi lube buthathaka kulo nyaka uzayo mkhulu, kwaye urhwebo lusenokushukunyiswa kancinci, kodwa kusafuneka kuqwalaselwe ukungaqiniseki okuziswe kukungavisisani ngokwemo yelizwe kwimarike. Ummandla wasekhaya ongcono kulindeleke ukuba uququzelele ukubuyiswa kwamaxabiso ezichumisi zasekhaya ekuguquguqukeni okusengqiqweni kwendawo.

2, izixhobo zesichumiso zineempawu ezinamandla, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo ikhokela uphuhliso loshishino

I-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezoLimo kunye neMicimbi yaseMaphandleni ikhuphe isaziso esithi "Isicwangciso sokuNcitshiswa kwezichumisi zekhemikhali ngo-2025", sifuna ukuba ngo-2025, ukusetyenziswa kwesizwe kwezichumisi zemichiza yezolimo kufuneka kufezekise ukuhla okuzinzileyo nozinzile. Ukusebenza okuthe ngqo kukuba: ngo-2025, umlinganiselo wendawo yokufaka isichumiso se-organic uya kunyuka ngamanqaku angaphezu kwe-5 ekhulwini, izinga lokugubungela umhlaba kunye nobuchwepheshe bokuchumisa umxube wezityalo ezinkulu kwilizwe liya kuzinza ngaphezu kwe-90%, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa kwesichumiso kwizityalo ezithathu zokutya ezikhulu elizweni liya kufikelela kuma-43%. Kwangaxeshanye, ngokutsho kwe “Iplani yeminyaka elishumi elinesine” yophuhliso lweembono ze-phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, ishishini lesichumiso elihlanganisiweyo liyaqhubeka nokuthatha uphuhliso oluluhlaza, ukuguqulwa kunye nokuphuculwa, umgangatho kunye nophuculo olusebenzayo njengenjongo iyonke, kunye ne-compound. izinga liya kuphuculwa ngakumbi.

Ngaphantsi kwemvelaphi "yolawulo oluphindwe kabini lwamandla", "umgangatho wekhabhoni ezimbini", ukhuseleko lokutya, kunye nesichumiso "ubonelelo oluzinzileyo kunye nexabiso", ngokwembono yendlela yophuhliso lweshishini, ikamva lesichumisi esidibeneyo kufuneka siqhubeke nokuphucula inkqubo. kunye nokuphucula inkqubo yokuvelisa ukonga amandla kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo; Ngokubhekiselele kwiindidi, kuyimfuneko ukuvelisa izichumisi ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezihlangabezana neemfuno zezolimo ezisemgangathweni; Kwinkqubo yokufakwa kwesicelo, ingqwalasela kufuneka ihlawulwe ekuphuculeni izinga lokusetyenziswa kwesichumisi.

3. Kuya kuba nentlungu kwinkqubo yokubonelela kunye nokunyanzeliswa kwemfuno

Ngokombono wesicwangciso kunye nofakelo oluphantsi kolwakhiwo, isantya sokuyilwa kwesiseko semveliso yesizwe yamashishini amakhulu ayikayeki, kwaye isicwangciso sokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo sinokubaluleka okubonakalayo okungaphezulu kokunyuka kwengeniso kumashishini amashishini adibeneyo. , ngenxa yokuba umkhwa wokudityaniswa kwemizi-mveliso, ngakumbi amashishini anezibonelelo zoncedo kunye nokusebenza ngomlinganiselo omkhulu kuya kudlala indima ebalulekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, amashishini anezinga elincinci, ixabiso eliphezulu kwaye akukho zixhobo ziya kujongana nempembelelo enkulu. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga, umthamo wemveliso ocetywayo phantsi kolwakhiwo ngo-2024 yi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye ukukhutshwa komthamo omtsha wemveliso yenye impembelelo kwimeko yangoku yobonelelo lwasekhaya kunye nokungalingani kwemfuno yemarike yesichumisi esihlanganisiweyo, umthamo wemveliso ogqithisileyo, kwaye ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso olubi kunzima okwexeshana ukuluphepha, lusenza uxinzelelo oluthile kumaxabiso.

4. Iindleko zempahla ekrwada

I-Urea: Ukusuka kwicala lokubonelela ngo-2024, imveliso ye-urea iya kuqhubeka ikhula, kwaye kwicala lemfuno, ishishini kunye nezolimo ziya kubonisa ukukhula okulindelweyo, kodwa ngokusekwe kwi-inventory surplus ekupheleni kuka-2023, ukubonelela ekhaya kunye nemfuno ngo-2024 okanye ubonise indlela yokunciphisa ngezigaba, kwaye utshintsho kwivolumu yokuthumela ngaphandle kunyaka ozayo luya kuqhubeka nokuchaphazela indlela yokuthengisa. Imakethi ye-urea ngo-2024 iyaqhubeka nokuguquguquka ngokubanzi, kunye namathuba aphezulu okuba iziko lexabiso lomxhuzulane liwile ukusuka kwi-2023.

Isichumiso sePhosphate: Ngo-2024, ixabiso lasekhaya le-mono ammonium phosphate liyehla. Nangona ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kulinganiselwe kwikota yokuqala, imfuno yasekhaya yasentwasahlobo kunye namaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza zisaxhaswa ngamaxabiso aphezulu, ixabiso liya kuguquguquka ikakhulu kwi-2850-2950 yuan / ton; Kwi-off-season yekota yesibini, isichumisi sasehlotyeni siphezulu kakhulu i-nitrogen, imfuno ye-phosphorus iyancipha, kwaye ixabiso le-mono-ammonium phosphate liya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe phantsi kweempembelelo zokuhla kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza; Kwikota yesithathu neyesine yexesha lokuthengisa ekwindla yasekhaya, imfuno yesichumisi se-phosphate ephezulu ye-phosphorus inkulu, kwaye imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe iyakhuthazwa, kunye nokulandelwa kwemfuno yokugcina ubusika, kunye ne-fosfate eluhlaza. inkxaso yexabiso eliqinileyo, ixabiso le-mono-ammonium phosphate liya kuphinda libuyele.

Isichumisi sePotassium: Ngo-2024, imeko yexabiso lemakethi yepotash yasekhaya iya kutshintsha ngokwexesha lemarike elingekho phezulu, liqhutywa yimfuno engqongqo yentengiso yasentwasahlobo, ixabiso lentengiso le-potassium chloride kunye ne-potassium sulfate liya kuqhubeka nokunyuka. , kwaye isivumelwano se-2023 siphela ngoDisemba 31, 2023, kwaye siya kujongana nesimo sokuxoxisana kwesivumelwano esikhulu se-2024. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba uthethathethwano luqale kwikota yokuqala. Emva kokuphela kwemarike yasentwasahlobo, imarike yepotash yasekhaya iya kungena kwindlela elula, nangona kusekho imfuno yeemarike zasehlotyeni nasekwindla kwinqanaba elilandelayo, kodwa lilinganiselwe kwi-potash.

Ngokuthathela ingqalelo umkhwa wezi zinto zithathu ziphambili zisentla ngo-2024, kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba ixabiso lonyaka lika-2023 liyokwehla, kwaye ke ixabiso lesichumisi esihlanganisiweyo liya kukhululeka, lichaphazela ixabiso lesichumisi esihlanganisiweyo.

5. Imfuno esezantsi

Okwangoku, ngokokutya okuziinkozo okungundoqo, iya kuqhubeka ifuna umthamo wayo wemveliso obanzi ukuba inyuke ngokuthe chu ngo-2024, kwaye imveliso iya kuhlala ingaphezulu kwe-1.3 yeetriliyoni zeekati, iqinisekisa ukuzimela okusisiseko kwiinkozo kunye nokhuseleko lokutya olupheleleyo. Kumxholo weqhinga lokhuseleko lokutya, imfuno yezolimo iya kuzinza kwaye iphucuke, ibonelele ngenkxaso encomekayo kwicala lemfuno yesichumiso esihlanganisiweyo. Ukongezelela, ngokuqwalasela ukuphuhliswa kwezolimo eziluhlaza, umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwezichumisi ezintsha kunye nezichumisi eziqhelekileyo kulindeleke ukuba ziqhube ngakumbi, kwaye isabelo sezichumisi eziqhelekileyo ziya kucudiswa, kodwa kuya kuthatha ixesha lokutshintsha. Ke ngoko, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno kunye nokusetyenziswa kwesichumisi esihlanganisiweyo akuzukuguquka kakhulu ngo-2024.

6. Imbonakalo yexabiso lemarike

Ngokusekwe kuhlalutyo lwezi zinto zingasentla, nangona unikezelo kunye nemfuno iphucukile, uxinzelelo olugqithileyo lusekho, kwaye iindleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada zinokukhululwa, ke intengiso yesichumiso esihlanganisiweyo kulindeleke ukuba ibuye ngokufanelekileyo ngo-2024, kodwa kwangaxeshanye. , imakethi enezigaba isekhona, kwaye impembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka iqwalaselwe. Kumashishini, nokuba kukulungiswa kwezinto ezikrwada ngaphambi kwexesha lonyaka, amandla okuvelisa ngokukhawuleza kwexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo, ukusebenza kophawu, njl., bajongene novavanyo.