Ngaba imeko yemarike yesichumisi esidityanisiweyo iya kuphucuka ngo-2024? Ngaba imarike iya kutshintshatshintsha? Oku kulandelayo luhlalutyo olunzulu lwendlela yexesha elizayo yesichumisi esidityanisiweyo ngokwembono yemeko-bume enkulu, umgaqo-nkqubo, indlela yokubonelela kunye nemfuno, iindleko kunye nenzuzo, kunye nohlalutyo lwemeko yokhuphiswano kushishino.

1. Ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuhamba kancinci, kwaye uqoqosho lwaseTshayina lujongene namathuba kunye nemingeni

Phantsi kwempembelelo yeengozi ezininzi ezifana nokuzimela kwelinye icala, i-geopolitics, iingxabano zomkhosi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, amatyala ehlabathi kunye nokulungiswa kwakhona kweenkqubo zoshishino, ukukhula korhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye notyalo-mali kuye kwehla kakhulu, kwaye ukubuyela koqoqosho lwehlabathi ngo-2024 kuhamba kancinci kwaye akulingani, kwaye ukungaqiniseki kuyanda ngakumbi.

Kwangaxeshanye, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luya kujongana namathuba amaninzi kunye nemingeni. Elona thuba likhulu likwiphulo lokukhuthazwa okuqhubekayo "kweziseko ezintsha" kunye namaqhinga "okujikeleza kabini". Le migaqo-nkqubo mibini iya kukhuthaza ngamandla ukuphuculwa kwamashishini asekhaya kwaye iphucule amandla angaphakathi okuqhuba uqoqosho. Kwangaxeshanye, umkhwa wehlabathi wokukhusela urhwebo usaqhubeka, nto leyo ebangela uxinzelelo olukhulu kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zaseTshayina.

Ngokwembono yoqikelelo lwendalo esingqongileyo, amathuba okuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi lube buthathaka kunyaka olandelayo makhulu, kwaye imveliso isenokugungqiswa kancinci, kodwa kusafuneka kuqwalaselwe ukungaqiniseki okubangelwa kukungqubana kwezopolitiko kwimarike. Imeko-bume engcono yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba incede ekubuyiseleni amaxabiso ezichumiso zasekhaya ekutshintsheni okufanelekileyo kwendawo.

2, izixhobo zezichumiso zineempawu eziqinileyo, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo ikhokela uphuhliso lweli shishini

UMphathiswa wezoLimo kunye neMicimbi yaseMaphandleni ukhuphe isaziso esithi “Isicwangciso sokuSebenza sokuNciphisa izichumisi zeekhemikhali ngo-2025”, esithi ngo-2025, ukusetyenziswa kwezichumisi zeekhemikhali zezolimo kuzwelonke kufanele kufikelele ekuncipheni okuzinzileyo nokuzinzileyo. Ukusebenza okuthe ngqo kukuba: ngo-2025, umlinganiselo wendawo yokufaka izichumisi zendalo uza kwanda ngaphezulu kwama-5 ekhulwini, izinga lokugubungela uvavanyo lomhlaba kunye netekhnoloji yokuchumisa ifomula yezityalo eziphambili elizweni liza kuzinza ngaphezulu kwama-90%, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa kwezichumisi zezityalo ezintathu eziphambili zokutya kweli lizwe liza kufikelela kuma-43%. Kwangaxeshanye, ngokutsho kwe-“Isicwangciso seMinyaka emihlanu seshumi elinesine” Iingcamango zophuhliso lwe-“Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” ze-phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, ishishini lezichumisi ezidityanisiweyo liyaqhubeka nokuthatha uphuhliso oluluhlaza, utshintsho kunye nokuphucula, umgangatho kunye nokuphuculwa kokusebenza njengenjongo iyonke, kwaye izinga lezichumisi liya kuphucuka ngakumbi.

Phantsi kwemvelaphi "yolawulo oluphindwe kabini lwamandla", "umgangatho wekhabhoni ezimbini", ukhuseleko lokutya, kunye "nobonelelo oluzinzileyo kunye nexabiso", ngokwembono yendlela yophuhliso lweshishini, ikamva lesichumisi esidityanisiweyo kufuneka liqhubeke nokuphucula inkqubo kunye nokuphucula inkqubo yemveliso ukuze kongiwe amandla kwaye kuncitshiswe ukukhutshwa komoya; Ngokuphathelele iintlobo ngeentlobo, kuyimfuneko ukuvelisa izichumisi ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezihlangabezana neemfuno zolimo olusemgangathweni; Kwinkqubo yokufaka, kufuneka kunikwe ingqalelo ekuphuculeni izinga lokusetyenziswa kwesichumisi.

3. Kuya kubakho ubunzima kwinkqubo yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunye nokulungiswa kwemfuno

Ngokwembono yesicwangciso kunye nokufakelwa okwakhiwayo, isantya sokubekwa kwesiseko semveliso sikazwelonke samashishini amakhulu asikayeki, kwaye icebo lokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo linokubaluleka okukhulu kokonyuka kwenzuzo yamashishini e-compound fertilizer, kuba umkhwa wokudibanisa amashishini, ingakumbi amashishini anezibonelelo zezixhobo kunye nokusebenza okukhulu uya kudlala indima ebaluleke ngakumbi. Nangona kunjalo, amashishini anezinga elincinci, iindleko eziphezulu kunye nokungabikho kwezixhobo aya kujongana nempembelelo enkulu. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga, amandla emveliso acwangcisiweyo akhiwayo ngo-2024 yi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye ukukhululwa kwamandla emveliso amatsha yenye impembelelo kwimeko yangoku yokungalingani kokunikezelwa kwemveliso yasekhaya kunye neemfuno kwimarike ye-compound fertilizer, amandla emveliso agqithisileyo, kunye nokhuphiswano olubi lwamaxabiso kunzima ukuluphepha okwethutyana, okwenza uxinzelelo oluthile kumaxabiso.

4. Ixabiso lezinto eziluhlaza

I-Urea: Kwicala lokubonelela ngo-2024, imveliso ye-urea iya kuqhubeka ikhula, kwaye kwicala leemfuno, ishishini kunye nezolimo ziya kubonisa ulindelo oluthile lokukhula, kodwa ngokusekelwe kwintsalela yezinto ezikhoyo ekupheleni kuka-2023, ukubonelela ngempahla yasekhaya kunye nemfuno ngo-2024 okanye kubonisa indlela yokuthomalalisa ngokwezigaba, kwaye utshintsho kumthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kunyaka olandelayo luya kuqhubeka luchaphazela indlela yemarike. Imarike ye-urea ngo-2024 iyaqhubeka nokutshintshatshintsha ngokubanzi, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba iziko lexabiso lomxhuzulane liye lehla ukusuka ngo-2023.

Isichumiso sePhosphate: Ngo-2024, ixabiso le-spot le-mono ammonium phosphate lasekhaya liyehla. Nangona ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunciphile kwikota yokuqala, imfuno yasekhaya yasentwasahlobo kunye namaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza asaxhaswa ngamaxabiso aphezulu, ixabiso liya kutshintsha kakhulu kwi-2850-2950 yuan/ton; Kwixesha elingaphandle kwekota yesibini, isichumiso sasehlotyeni ikakhulu sine-nitrogen ephezulu, imfuno ye-phosphorus incinci, kwaye ixabiso le-mono-ammonium phosphate liya kwehla kancinci phantsi kwempembelelo yokwehla kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza; Kwikota yesithathu neyesine yexesha lokuthengisa lasekwindla lasekhaya, imfuno yesichumiso se-phosphate ephezulu ye-phosphorus inkulu, kwaye imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe iyakhuthazwa, kunye nokulandelwa kwemfuno yokugcina ebusika, kunye ne-phosphate yezinto eziluhlaza zokuxhasa amaxabiso aqinileyo, ixabiso le-mono-ammonium phosphate liya kuphinda libuye.

Isichumisi sePotassium: Ngowama-2024, indlela amaxabiso emarike yepotash yasekhaya aza kutshintsha ngokwexesha elingekho phezulu lemarike, eliqhutywa yimfuno eqinileyo yemarike yasentwasahlobo, ixabiso lemarike yepotassium chloride kunye nepotassium sulfate liza kuqhubeka linyuka, kwaye isivumelwano sika-2023 siphela ngoDisemba 31, 2023, kwaye siza kujongana nemeko yothethathethwano lwesivumelwano esikhulu sika-2024. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba iingxoxo ziza kuqala kwikota yokuqala. Emva kokuphela kwemarike yasentwasahlobo, imarike yepotash yasekhaya iza kungena kwindlela elula, nangona kusekho imfuneko yeemarike zasehlotyeni nasekwindla kwinqanaba lokugqibela, kodwa incinci kakhulu kwipotash.

Xa sijonga indlela ezisetyenziswa ngayo ezi zinto zintathu ziphambili ngo-2024, kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba ixabiso lonyaka lika-2023 lihle, kwaye ke iindleko zesichumiso esidityanisiweyo ziya kuncipha, nto leyo echaphazela indlela amaxabiso esichumiso esidityanisiweyo ahamba ngayo.

5. Imfuno ephantsi

Okwangoku, ngokweenkozo eziphambili ezisezantsi, iza kuqhubeka ifuna amandla ayo emveliso apheleleyo ukuba anyuke ngokuthe chu ngo-2024, kwaye imveliso iya kuhlala ingaphezulu kwe-1.3 trillion catties, iqinisekisa ukwaneliseka okusisiseko kwiinkozo kunye nokhuseleko lokutya olupheleleyo. Kwimeko yesicwangciso sokhuseleko lokutya, imfuno yezolimo iya kuzinza kwaye iphucuke, inike inkxaso efanelekileyo kwicala lemfuno yesichumiso esidityanisiweyo. Ukongeza, xa kujongwa uphuhliso lwezolimo oluluhlaza, umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kwezichumiso ezintsha kunye nezichumiso eziqhelekileyo kulindeleke ukuba unciphe ngakumbi, kwaye isabelo sezichumiso eziqhelekileyo siya kuncitshiswa, kodwa kuya kuthatha ixesha ukutshintsha. Ke ngoko, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno kunye nokusetyenziswa kwesichumiso esidityanisiweyo akuyi kutshintsha kakhulu ngo-2024.

6. Imbonakalo yexabiso lemarike

Ngokusekelwe kuhlalutyo lwezi zinto zingasentla, nangona ukubonelela kunye nemfuno kuphucukile, uxinzelelo olugqithisileyo lusekho, kwaye iindleko zezinto eziluhlaza zinokukhululwa, ngoko ke imakethi yesichumiso esidityanisiweyo kulindeleke ukuba ibuye ngengqiqo ngo-2024, kodwa kwangaxeshanye, imakethi ebekwe ngokwezigaba isasekho, kwaye impembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka iqwalaselwe. Kumashishini, nokuba kukulungiswa kwezinto eziluhlaza ngaphambi kwexesha, amandla emveliso akhawulezileyo exesha lexesha eliphezulu, ukusebenza kophawu, njl.njl., ajongene novavanyo.