Ingxaki! Isilumkiso esikhulu sekhemikhali! Uloyiko "lokunciphisa unikezelo"!

Kutshanje, iCovestro ibhengeze ukuba isityalo sayo seTDI esiziitoni ezingama-300,000 eJamani siphelelwe ngamandla ngenxa yokuvuza kweklorine kwaye asinakuphinda siqaliswe kwakhona kwixesha elifutshane. Kulindeleke ukuba siqalise ukubonelela emva komhla wama-30 kweyeNkanga.

I-BASF, ekwakwiJamani, ikwajongene nesityalo se-TDI esiziitoni ezingama-300,000 esavalwa ukuze silungiswe ekupheleni kuka-Epreli kwaye asikaqaliswa kwakhona okwangoku. Ukongeza, iyunithi ye-BC yaseWanhua nayo iphantsi kokulungiswa rhoqo. Ngexesha elifutshane, amandla emveliso ye-TDI yaseYurophu, emalunga ne-25% yenani lilonke lehlabathi, akwimeko yokungafumaneki, kwaye ukungalingani kokunikezelwa kwemveliso kunye nemfuno yengingqi kuyanda.

"Umgca" womthamo wothutho wanqunyulwa, kwaye uninzi lweenkampani ezinkulu zeekhemikhali zanika isilumkiso esingxamisekileyo

UMlambo iRhine, onokubizwa ngokuba “ngumthombo wobomi” kuqoqosho lwaseYurophu, wehlile amanqanaba amanzi ngenxa yobushushu obuphezulu, kwaye ezinye iindawo eziphambili zomlambo kulindeleke ukuba zingabi nakuhamba ukusuka nge-12 ka-Agasti. Iingcali zemozulu ziqikelela ukuba iimeko zembalela zisenokuqhubeka kwiinyanga ezizayo, kwaye isiseko semizi-mveliso yaseJamani sinokuphinda iimpazamo ezifanayo, sithwaxwe ziziphumo ezibi kakhulu kunokusilela kweRhine kwimbali ngo-2018, ngaloo ndlela sibhebhethekisa ingxaki yamandla eYurophu.

Ummandla woMlambo iRhine eJamani ufikelela phantse kwisithathu somhlaba waseJamani, kwaye udlula kwiindawo ezininzi zoshishino ezibalulekileyo eJamani ezifana nommandla waseRuhr. Malunga ne-10% yeekhemikhali ezithunyelwa eYurophu zisebenzisa iRhine, kuquka izinto eziluhlaza, izichumisi, iimveliso eziphakathi kunye neekhemikhali ezigqityiweyo. IRhine yayimalunga ne-28% yeekhemikhali ezithunyelwa eJamani ngo-2019 nango-2020, kwaye uthutho lwepetroli kwiinkampani ezinkulu zeekhemikhali ezifana neBASF, Covestro, LANXESS kunye ne-Evonik zixhomekeke kakhulu kwiinqanawa ezithunyelwa ecaleni kweRhine.

Okwangoku, igesi yendalo kunye namalahle eYurophu zixinene kakhulu, kwaye kule nyanga, ukuvalwa kwe-EU ngamalahle aseRashiya kuqalile ukusebenza ngokusesikweni. Ukongeza, kukho iindaba zokuba i-EU iza kuyicinezela iGazprom. Iindaba ezothusayo eziqhubekayo zivakale kushishino lweekhemikhali lwehlabathi. Njengesikhumbuzo, uninzi lweenkampani ezinkulu zeekhemikhali ezifana neBASF kunye neCovestro zikhuphe izilumkiso kwangethuba kungekudala.

Isikhulu sezochumiso saseMntla Melika iMosaic sithe imveliso yezityalo kwihlabathi liphela incinci ngenxa yezinto ezimbi ezifana nengxabano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine, amaqondo obushushu aphezulu aqhubekayo eYurophu nase-United States, kunye neempawu zembalela emazantsi eBrazil. Kwi-phosphates, iLegg Mason ilindele ukuba imiqathango yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwamanye amazwe isenokuqhubeka ixesha elide kulo nyaka ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2023.

Inkampani yeekhemikhali ezikhethekileyo iLanxess ithe ukuvalwa kwegesi kuya kuba "nemiphumo emibi kakhulu" kwishishini leekhemikhali laseJamani, apho izityalo ezisebenzisa kakhulu igesi zivala imveliso ngelixa ezinye ziya kufuneka zinciphise imveliso.

Isikhululo esikhulu seekhemikhali emhlabeni, iBruntage, sithe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso amandla kuya kubeka ishishini leekhemikhali laseYurophu kwimeko embi. Ngaphandle kokufikelela kumandla angabizi kakhulu, ukhuphiswano lwexesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide lweshishini leekhemikhali laseYurophu luya kuphazamiseka.

UAzelis, umsasazi weekhemikhali ezikhethekileyo zaseBelgium, uthe kukho imingeni eqhubekayo kwimicimbi yezothutho kwihlabathi liphela, ingakumbi ukuhamba kweempahla ukusuka eTshayina ukuya eYurophu okanye eMelika. Unxweme lwaseMelika luthwaxwe kukunqongophala kwabasebenzi, ukucotha kokususwa kwempahla kunye nokunqongophala kwabaqhubi beelori eMelika naseYurophu okuchaphazela ukuthunyelwa kwempahla.

UCovestro ulumkisile ukuba ukwabiwa kwegesi yendalo kunyaka olandelayo kunokunyanzela izakhiwo zemveliso nganye ukuba zisebenze ngemithwalo ephantsi okanye zivale ngokupheleleyo, kuxhomekeke kubungakanani bokuncitshiswa kokunikezelwa kwegesi, okunokukhokelela ekuweni ngokupheleleyo kwemveliso kunye neekhonkco zokubonelela kwaye kubeke emngciphekweni amawaka emisebenzi.

I-BASF ikhuphe izilumkiso ngokuphindaphindiweyo zokuba ukuba umbane wegesi wendalo uwela ngaphantsi kwama-50% emfuno ephezulu, kuya kufuneka inciphise okanye ivale ngokupheleleyo isiseko esikhulu semveliso yeekhemikhali esidibeneyo ehlabathini, isiseko saseJamani iLudwigshafen.

I-INEOS, inkampani enkulu ye-petrochemical yaseSwitzerland, ithe ixabiso lezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kwimisebenzi yayo yaseYurophu liphezulu kakhulu, kwaye ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine kunye nezohlwayo zoqoqosho ezibangelwe yiRashiya zizise “imingeni emikhulu” kumaxabiso amandla kunye nokhuseleko lwamandla kulo lonke ishishini leekhemikhali laseYurophu.

Ingxaki "yokunamathela entanyeni" iyaqhubeka, kwaye utshintsho lwezogquma kunye nemixokelelwane yeshishini leekhemikhali lusondele.

Iinkampani ezinkulu zeekhemikhali ezikude ngamawakawaka eekhilomitha ziye zalumkisa rhoqo, zibangela izivuthuvuthu zegazi. Kwiinkampani zeekhemikhali zasekhaya, eyona nto ibalulekileyo yimpembelelo kwikhonkco lazo lemizi-mveliso. Ilizwe lam linokhuphiswano oluqinileyo kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso eliphantsi, kodwa lisabuthathaka kwiimveliso eziphezulu. Le meko ikwakho nakwishishini leekhemikhali langoku. Okwangoku, phakathi kwezixhobo eziphambili zeekhemikhali ezingaphezu kwe-130 eTshayina, ama-32% eentlobo awakasebenzi, kwaye ama-52% eentlobo asaxhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.

Kwicandelo eliphezulu leengubo, kukwakho nezinto ezininzi ezisetyenzisiweyo ezikhethwe kwiimveliso zaphesheya. I-DSM kwishishini le-epoxy resin, iMitsubishi kunye neMitsui kwishishini le-solvent; iDigao kunye neBASF kwishishini le-defoamer; iSika kunye neValspar kwishishini le-curing agent; iDigao kunye neDow kwishishini le-wetting agent; iWACKER kunye neDegussa kwishishini le-titanium dioxide; iChemours kunye neHuntsman kwishishini le-titanium dioxide; iBayer kunye neLanxess kwishishini le-pigment.

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile, ukunqongophala kwegesi yendalo, ukuvalwa kwamalahle eRashiya, ukuhanjiswa kwamanzi nombane okungxamisekileyo, kwaye ngoku uthutho nalo luye lwavalwa, nto leyo echaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukunikezelwa kweekhemikhali ezininzi ezikumgangatho ophezulu. Ukuba iimveliso ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezingeniswa kwamanye amazwe zithintelwe, nokuba azizizo zonke iinkampani zeekhemikhali eziza kutsalwa, ziya kuchaphazeleka ngokwamanqanaba ahlukeneyo phantsi kwe-chain reaction.

Nangona kukho abavelisi basekhaya bohlobo olufanayo, uninzi lwemiqobo yobugcisa ephezulu ayinakuqhekezwa kwixesha elifutshane. Ukuba iinkampani kushishino azikwazi ukulungisa ukuqonda kwazo kunye nesikhokelo sophuhliso, kwaye azinaki uphando lwesayensi nobuchwepheshe kunye nophuhliso kunye nokuvelisa izinto ezintsha, olu hlobo lwengxaki "yokunamathela entanyeni" luya kuqhubeka nokudlala indima, kwaye emva koko luya kuchaphazeleka kuyo yonke i-force majeure yaphesheya. Xa isigebenga seekhemikhali esikude kangangeekhilomitha ezininzi senza ingozi, akunakuphepheka ukuba intliziyo iya kukrweleka kwaye ixhala lingabi yinto engaqhelekanga.

Amaxabiso eoyile abuyela kwinqanaba leenyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo, ingaba lilungile okanye libi?

Ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, indlela amaxabiso eoyile aphesheya ahamba ngayo ingachazwa njengeenguqu ezitshintshayo. Emva kwamaza amabini adlulileyo okunyuka nokwehla, amaxabiso eoyile aphesheya anamhlanje abuyele ekutshintsheni malunga ne-$90 ngebhareli ngaphambi koMatshi kulo nyaka.

Ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi, kwelinye icala, ulindelo lokubuyela umva koqoqosho olubuthathaka kwiimarike zaphesheya, kunye nokukhula okulindelekileyo kokunikezelwa kweoyile ekrwada, kuya kuthintela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile ukuya kwinqanaba elithile; kwelinye icala, imeko yangoku yokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu yenze inkxaso entle yamaxabiso eoyile. Kwimeko enzima kangaka, amaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe akhoyo ngoku akwingxaki.

Amaziko ohlalutyo lwemarike abonise ukuba imeko yangoku yokunqongophala kweoyile ekrwada isaqhubeka, kwaye inkxaso ephantsi yamaxabiso eoyile izinzile. Nangona kunjalo, ngenkqubela entsha kwiingxoxo zenyukliya zase-Iran, imakethi ikwalindele ukuba kususwe ukuvinjelwa kweemveliso zeoyile ekrwada zase-Iran kwimarike, nto leyo ekhokelela kuxinzelelo kumaxabiso eoyile. I-Iran yenye yezona mveliso zimbalwa ziphambili zeoyile kwimarike yangoku ezinokunyusa kakhulu imveliso. Inkqubela phambili yengxoxo yesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran ibe yeyona nto itshintshayo kwimarike yeoyile ekrwada kutshanje.

Iimarike zigxile kwingxoxo zesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran

Kutshanje, amaxhala malunga nethuba lokukhula koqoqosho abeke uxinzelelo kumaxabiso eoli, kodwa uxinzelelo lwesakhiwo kwicala lobonelelo lweoyile lube yinkxaso ephantsi yamaxabiso eoli, kwaye amaxabiso eoli ajongene noxinzelelo kuzo zombini iziphelo zokunyuka nokuhla. Nangona kunjalo, iingxoxo malunga nomba wenyukliya wase-Iran ziya kuzisa izinto ezinokwenzeka kwimarike, ngoko ke ziye zaba yinto ephambili kubo bonke abachaphazelekayo.

I-arhente yolwazi ngempahla iLongzhong Information ibonise ukuba iingxoxo malunga nomba wenyukliya wase-Iran zisiganeko esibalulekileyo kwimarike yeoyile ekrwada kungekudala.

Nangona i-EU ithe iza kuqhubeka nokuqhubela phambili iingxoxo zenyukliya zase-Iran kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezizayo, kwaye i-Iran ikwathe iza kuphendula "kwisicatshulwa" esicetywe yi-EU kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-United States ayikathethi ngokucacileyo ngale nto, ngoko ke kusekho ukungaqiniseki malunga nesiphumo sokugqibela sengxoxo. Ngenxa yoko, kunzima ukuphelisa ukuvalwa kweoyile yase-Iran ngobusuku obunye.

Uhlalutyo lweHuatai Futures lubonise ukuba kusekho umahluko phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran kwimigaqo ebalulekileyo yothethathethwano, kodwa ithuba lokufikelela kuhlobo oluthile lwesivumelwano sexeshana ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka alinakucinywa. Ingxoxo yenyukliya yase-Iran yenye yamakhadi ambalwa amandla i-United States enokuyidlala. Logama nje ingxoxo yenyukliya yase-Iran inokwenzeka, impembelelo yayo kwimarike iya kuhlala ikhona.

I-Huatai Futures ibonise ukuba i-Iran yenye yamazwe ambalwa kwimarike yangoku anokunyusa kakhulu imveliso, kwaye indawo ejikeleze ioyile yase-Iran ngolwandle nasemhlabeni iphantse ibe yi-50 yezigidi zeebhareli. Nje ukuba izigwebo zisuswe, kuya kuba nefuthe elikhulu kwimarike yeoyile yexesha elifutshane.