Ingxaki! Isilumkiso esikhulu sekhemikhali! Uloyiko "lokunciphisa unikezelo" umngcipheko!

Kutshanje, uCovestro ubhengeze ukuba iplanti ye-TDI yeetoni ezingama-300,000 eJamani yayinamandla amakhulu ngenxa yokuvuza kweklorini kwaye ayinakuphinda iqalwe kwixesha elifutshane. Kulindeleke ukuba kuphinde kuqale unikezelo emva kwe-30 kaNovemba.

I-BASF, ekwafumaneka eJamani, nayo iye yavezwa kumzi-mveliso we-TDI weetoni ezingama-300,000 owavalwa ukuba ulungiswe ekupheleni kuka-Epreli kwaye awukaqalwa ngokutsha okwangoku. Ukongeza, iyunithi ye-BC ye-Wanhua nayo iphantsi kogcino lwesiqhelo. Ngexesha elifutshane, amandla emveliso ye-TDI yaseYurophu, eyenza phantse i-25% ye-total yehlabathi, ikwimeko ye-vacuum, kwaye ukubonelela ngommandla kunye nokungalingani kwemfuno kuyanda.

“Umgudu wokuphila” womthamo wezothutho wanqunyulwa, kwaye iingxilimbela zeekhemikhali ezininzi zanikela isilumkiso sikaxakeka

Umlambo i-Rhine, onokuthiwa "umzila wokuphila" wezoqoqosho zaseYurophu, uye wehla amanzi ngenxa yobushushu obuphezulu, kwaye ezinye iindawo eziphambili zemilambo zilindeleke ukuba zingakwazi ukuhamba ukusuka ngo-Agasti 12. kwiinyanga ezizayo, kunye ne-heartland ye-industrial yaseJamani inokuphinda iimpazamo ezifanayo, ifumana iziphumo ezibi kakhulu kunokusilela kwe-Rhine kwimbali ngo-2018, ngaloo ndlela kwandisa ingxaki yamandla yaseYurophu.

Ummandla woMlambo iRhine eJamani ufikelela phantse kwisinye kwisithathu somhlaba waseJamani, kwaye uqukuqela kwiindawo ezininzi zemizi-mveliso zaseJamani ezinje ngeRuhr. Kangange-10% yokuthunyelwa kweekhemikhali eYurophu zisebenzisa i-Rhine, kubandakanywa izinto eziluhlaza, izichumisi, iimveliso eziphakathi kunye neekhemikhali ezigqityiweyo. I-Rhine ibalwe malunga ne-28% yeekhemikhali zokuthunyelwa kweekhemikhali zaseJamani ngo-2019 kunye no-2020, kunye ne-petrochemical logistics ye-chemical giants ezifana ne-BASF, i-Covestro, i-LANXESS kunye ne-Evonik zixhomekeke kakhulu ekuthunyelweni ecaleni kwe-Rhine.

Okwangoku, irhasi yendalo kunye namalahle eYurophu akwimeko exineneyo, kwaye kule nyanga, uthintelo lwe-EU kumalahle aseRussia luqale ngokusemthethweni. Ukongeza, kukho iindaba zokuba i-EU iya kukwaphula iGazprom. Iindaba eziqhubekayo ezothusayo ziye zavakala kushishino lwemichiza yehlabathi. Njengomnxeba wokuvuka, uninzi lweekhemikhali ezinkulu ezifana ne-BASF kunye neCovestro zikhuphe izilumkiso zakwangoko kungekudala.

Ingxilimbela yezichumisi yaseMntla Melika uMosaic yachaza ukuba imveliso yezityalo yehlabathi ibambene ngenxa yezinto ezingathandekiyo ezifana nengxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukuqhubeka kwamaqondo obushushu aphezulu eYurophu nase-United States, kunye neempawu zembalela kumazantsi eBrazil. Kwi-phosphates, uLegg Mason ulindele ukuba izithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle kwamanye amazwe ziya kwandiswa unyaka wonke ukuya kutsho ngo-2023.

Inkampani yeekhemikhali ezikhethekileyo iLanxess yathi i-embargo yegesi iya kuba "nemiphumo eyintlekele" kwishishini lemichiza yaseJamani, kunye nezityalo ezithatha igesi ezivala imveliso ngelixa ezinye ziya kufuna ukunciphisa imveliso.

Oyena msasazi wemichiza omkhulu kwihlabathi, iBruntage, uthe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ombane kuya kubeka ishishini lemichiza laseYurophu emngciphekweni. Ngaphandle kokufikelela kumandla anexabiso eliphantsi, ukhuphiswano oluphakathi ukuya kwixesha elide loshishino lweekhemikhali lwaseYurophu luya kubandezeleka.

U-Azelis, umthengisi weekhemikhali ezikhethekileyo waseBelgium, uthe kukho imiceli mngeni eqhubekayo kwi-logistics yehlabathi, ngakumbi ukuhamba kwempahla ukusuka e-China ukuya eYurophu okanye eMelika. Unxweme lwase-US luthwaxwa kukunqongophala kwabasebenzi, ukucotha ukukhutshwa kwempahla kunye nokunqongophala kwabaqhubi belori e-US naseYurophu echaphazela ukuthunyelwa.

UCovestro ulumkise ngelithi umlinganiselo werhasi yendalo kulo nyaka uzayo unokunyanzela amaziko okuvelisa umntu ukuba asebenze ngemithwalo ephantsi okanye avale ngokupheleleyo, kuxhomekeke kubungakanani bokucuthwa kwerhasi, nto leyo enokukhokelela ekuweni ngokupheleleyo kwemveliso kunye nokubonelela ngamatyathanga kwaye ibeke emngciphekweni. amawaka emisebenzi.

I-BASF ikhuphe ngokuphindaphindiweyo izilumkiso ukuba ukuba ukunikezelwa kwegesi yendalo kwehla ngaphantsi kwe-50% yemfuno ephezulu, kuya kufuneka ukunciphisa okanye ukuvala ngokupheleleyo isiseko sokuvelisa imichiza edibeneyo yehlabathi, isiseko saseJamani saseLudwigshafen.

I-Swiss petrochemical giant INEOS yathi ixabiso lezinto eziluhlaza kwimisebenzi yalo yaseYurophu liphezulu ngokuhlekisayo, kwaye ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine kunye neziphumo zezohlwayo zezoqoqosho ngokuchasene neRashiya ziye zazisa "imingeni enkulu" kumaxabiso amandla kunye nokhuseleko lwamandla kulo lonke elaseYurophu. ishishini lemichiza.

Ingxaki "yentamo exinyiweyo" iyaqhubeka, kwaye ukuguqulwa kweengubo kunye namatyathanga oshishino lweekhemikhali kusondele.

Iingxilimbela zemichiza ezikude ngamawaka eekhilomitha zihlala zilumkisa, zikhupha izaqhwithi ezinegazi. Kwiinkampani zeekhemikhali zasekhaya, eyona nto ibalulekileyo yimpembelelo kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso yabo. ilizwe lam linokhuphiswano olomeleleyo kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso eliphantsi, kodwa lisebuthathaka kwiimveliso eziphezulu. Le meko ikhona nakwishishini langoku lemichiza. Okwangoku, phakathi kwe-130 yezinto eziphambili zeekhemikhali ezisisiseko e-China, i-32% yeentlobo zisangenanto, kwaye i-52% yeentlobo zisaxhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.

Kwicandelo elinyukayo leengubo zokwaleka, kukho nezinto ezininzi ezikhethiweyo ezikhethiweyo kwiimveliso zaphesheya. I-DSM kwishishini le-epoxy resin, i-Mitsubishi kunye ne-Mitsui kwishishini le-solvent; I-Digao kunye ne-BASF kwishishini le-defoamer; USika noValspar kushishino lweearhente zokunyanga; IDigao kunye neDow kwishishini learhente yokumanzisa; UWACKER noDegussa kushishino lwetitanium dioxide; IiChemours kunye neHuntsman kwishishini le-titanium dioxide; I-Bayer kunye neLanxess kwishishini le-pigment.

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile, ukunqongophala kwegesi yendalo, ukuvinjwa kwamalahle eRashiya, amanzi angxamisekileyo kunye nombane, kwaye ngoku ukuthutha kuvaliwe, okuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukunikezelwa kweekhemikhali ezininzi eziphezulu. Ukuba iimveliso eziphezulu ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zithintelwe, nokuba azikho zonke iinkampani zeekhemikhali eziya kutsalwa phantsi, ziya kuchaphazeleka kwiidigri ezahlukeneyo phantsi kwe-chain reaction.

Nangona kukho abavelisi basekhaya bohlobo olufanayo, ezininzi izithintelo zobugcisa eziphakamileyo azikwazi ukuphulwa kwixesha elifutshane. Ukuba iinkampani kwishishini zisengakwazi ukuhlengahlengisa ukuqonda kwazo kunye nolwalathiso lophuhliso, kwaye zinganikeli ngqalelo kuphando lwezenzululwazi kunye nobuchwepheshe kunye nophuhliso kunye nokutsha, olu hlobo Ingxaki "yentamo exinyiweyo" iya kuqhubeka idlala indima, kwaye ke iya kuchaphazeleka kuyo yonke i-overseas force majeure. Xa isigebenga sekhemikhali esikumgama ongamawaka eekhilomitha sifumana ingozi, ayinakuphepheka ukuba intliziyo iya kukrweleka kwaye ixhala liya kuba yinto engaqhelekanga.

Amaxabiso eoyile abuyela kwinqanaba leenyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo, ngaba kulungile okanye kubi?

Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, umkhwa wamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe unokuchazwa njengokujijeka nokujika. Emva kwamaza amabini angaphambili okunyuka nokuhla, amaxabiso e-oyile anamhlanje abuyele ekuguquguqukeni malunga ne-90 yeedola / umphanda ngaphambi kukaMatshi kulo nyaka.

Ngokwabahlalutyi, kwelinye icala, ukulindela ukubuyiswa koqoqosho olubuthathaka kwiimarike zaphesheya, kunye nokukhula okulindelekileyo kwi-oyile ekrwada, kuya kunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile ukuya kwinqanaba elithile; kwelinye icala, imeko yangoku yokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu yenze inkxaso entle kumaxabiso eoli. Kwimeko entsonkothileyo ngolo hlobo, amaxabiso e-oyile akhoyo ngoku kumazwe ngamazwe asengxakini.

Amaziko ohlalutyo lweemarike abonise ukuba imeko yangoku yokunqongophala kwe-oyile ekrwada isaqhuba, kwaye inkxaso esezantsi yamaxabiso eoyile izinzile. Nangona kunjalo, ngenkqubela-phambili entsha kuthethwano lwenyukliya lwase-Iran, imakethi ikwanalo nolindelo lokususwa kokuvalwa kwemveliso ye-oyile ekrwada yase-Iran kwimarike, nto leyo ekhokelela ngakumbi kuxinzelelo kumaxabiso e-oyile. I-Iran ngomnye wabavelisi abambalwa abakhulu be-oyile kwimarike yangoku enokunyusa kakhulu imveliso. Inkqubela phambili yothethathethwano lwesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran ibe ngowona tshintsho lukhulu kurhwebo lwe-oyile ekrwada kutsha nje.

Iimarike zigxile kwiingxoxo zesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran

Kutshanje, iinkxalabo malunga nethemba lokukhula koqoqosho ziye zabeka uxinzelelo kumaxabiso e-oyile, kodwa ukuxinana kwesakhiwo kwicala lokubonelela nge-oyile kuye kwaba yinkxaso esezantsi yamaxabiso eoli, kwaye amaxabiso eoyile ajongene noxinzelelo kuzo zozibini iziphelo zokunyuka nokuhla. Nangona kunjalo, uthetha-thethwano malunga nomba wenyukliya wase-Iran luya kuzisa izinto ezinokuguquguquka ezinokuthi zibekho kwimarike, ngoko ke iye yaba yingqwalasela yawo onke amaqela.

I-arhente yolwazi loRhwebo i-Longzhong Ulwazi ibonise ukuba uthetha-thethwano ngomba wenyukliya wase-Iran sisiganeko esibalulekileyo kwimarike ye-oyile ekrwada kwixesha elizayo elingekude.

Nangona i-EU itshilo ukuba iya kuqhubeka nokuqhubela phambili iingxoxo zenyukliya zase-Iran kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezizayo, kwaye i-Iran iphinde yathi iya kuphendula "isicatshulwa" esicetywayo yi-EU kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-United States ayizange. wenze ingxelo ecacileyo malunga noku, ngoko ke kusekho ukungaqiniseki malunga nesiphumo sothethathethwano lokugqibela. Ke ngoko, kunzima ukuphakamisa i-oyile yaseIran ubusuku bonke.

Uhlalutyo lwe-Huatai Futures lubonise ukuba kusekho ukungafani phakathi kwe-United States kunye ne-Iran kwimimiselo ephambili yokuxoxisana, kodwa ithuba lokufikelela uhlobo oluthile lwesivumelwano sexeshana ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka alulawulwa. Uthethathethwano lwenyukliya lwase-Iran lelinye lamakhadi ambalwa amandla anokudlalwa yi-United States. Logama nje uthethathethwano lwenyukliya lwase-Iran lunokwenzeka, impembelelo yalo kwimarike iya kuhlala ikhona.

I-Huatai Futures ibonise ukuba i-Iran lelinye lamazwe ambalwa kwimarike yangoku enokunyusa kakhulu imveliso, kwaye indawo edadayo ye-oyile yase-Iranian ngolwandle kunye nomhlaba iphantse ibe yi-50 yezigidi zemibhobho. Emva kokuba izigwebo ziphakanyisiwe, ziya kuba nempembelelo enkulu kwimarike yeoli yexesha elifutshane.