Ngo-2023, xa ixabiso ledizili laseTshayina litshintshatshintsha, ukunyuka okubalulekileyo okubini kuye kwanda kulindelo, endaweni yexesha eliphambili, ukusukela nge-11 kaDisemba, ixabiso ledizili le-7590 yuan/ton, linyuke nge-0.9% ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, lehla nge-5.85% unyaka nonyaka, ixabiso eliphakathi lonyaka le-7440 yuan/ton, lehla nge-8.3% unyaka nonyaka. Ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ixabiso eliphakathi lonyaka leBrent le-82.42 US dollars/barrel, lehla nge-17.57%, ukwehla kweoyile ekrwada kuphezulu kakhulu kunelo ledizili, kwaye icala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno lixhasa ixabiso ledizili ngcono kuneoyile ekrwada.
Ukusasazeka kwexabiso le-cracker yedizili ka-2023 kusephezulu kunexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo uninzi lwexesha, ukususela ngoSeptemba ngokuhla kwamaxabiso emarike, ukusasazeka kwexabiso le-cracker kwaqala ukwehla, inzuzo yokuthengisa ngokuchaseneyo, ukusukela ngo-2023 imveliso yedizili yasekhaya kunye nenzuzo yokuthengisa indlela yokudlulisa? Ikamva liza kuqhubeka njani?
Kulo nyaka, ixabiso leoyile yedizili liqale ngamandla, liqala kwimpahla ephantsi ekuqaleni konyaka, kunye nolindelo oluhle emva kokuphela kobhubhane, livula i-overdraft yesitokhwe kwangaphambili, kwaye emva koko imfuno ingaphantsi kunekulindelekileyo, ixabiso leoyile yedizili lehle malunga ne-300 yuan/ton ngoMatshi, ukwehla kungaphezulu kakhulu kunepetroli, ngenxa yokuba isitokhwe sedizili sakuqala sasinezinto ezininzi kwicala eliphezulu, kwaye ixabiso lehla xa i-middle and downstream ilahla iimpahla ezininzi. Ngo-Epreli, icala leendleko lelona sizathu siphambili sokuxhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso eyongezelelweyo ye-OPEC+ kwakhawuleza kwanyusa amaxabiso eoli yamazwe ngamazwe ngaphezulu kwe-7%, umda wamaxabiso eemveliso yeoyile ecociweyo ukwamkele ukunyuka okukhulu kwe-yuan/ton engaphezu kwe-500 ngonyaka, ukuxhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso edizili, kodwa imfuno ekhawulezileyo kunzima ukuxhasa ukunyuka kwaqala ukungena kumjelo ophantsi, kwehle ukuya kwi-7060 yuan/ton ngoJuni 30. Ixabiso leShandong Independent Refinery lehle ngaphantsi kwe-7,000 yuan/ton ngoJuni, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lehle laya kwindawo ephantsi ye-6,722 yuan/ton ngoJuni 28. NgoJulayi, ngokusasazeka kwexabiso eliqhekekayo ukuya kwinqanaba eliphakathi leminyaka elishumi, abarhwebi baqala ukuvula izikhundla kwangaphambili, kwaye ixabiso lenyuka laya ezantsi kwerebound elindelekileyo, kunye nokunyuka ukuya kwi-739 yuan/ton kwinyanga. Ukususela ngo-Agasti ukuya kuSeptemba, ingqondo kunye nemfuno zixhase ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwamaxabiso eoli, ukususela ngo-Okthobha, ixabiso laqala ukuhla, kwaye ixabiso elinyukile kwangaphambili nalo lehla kwangaphambili. NgoNovemba, njengoko ixabiso lehla ukuya kwinqanaba leendleko zezinye iindawo zokucoca, iindawo zokucoca zaqala ukunciphisa umthwalo, kwaye iinkampani eziphambili nazo zanciphisa isicwangciso semveliso ngokwezinto zazo ezisetyenzisiweyo kunye nolindelo lwemfuno. Imveliso iyonke yepetroli kunye nedizili ngoNovemba yayiyeyona iphantsi kakhulu kwixesha elifanayo ukusukela ngo-2017, ixhasa amaxabiso, ioyile ekrwada yehle nge-7.52 ekhulwini kwaye idizili yehle nge-3.6 ekhulwini kuphela. NgoDisemba, imveliso yedizili isalindeleke ukuba ibe yeyona iphantsi kwixesha elifanayo ukusukela ngo-2017, kwaye kusekho inkxaso enamandla kumaxabiso.
Ukususela ngo-2023, umahluko ophakathi wexabiso lokuqhekeka kwedizili kwindawo yokucocisa ezimeleyo yaseShandong yi-724 yuan/ton, inyuke nge-5.85% xa ithelekiswa nexesha elifanayo ngo-2022, unyaka ubonisa umkhwa obuthathaka ngaphambi kwexesha elinamandla, isiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka siphezulu kakhulu kunexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, uSeptemba waqala ukwehla kunenqanaba lonyaka ophelileyo, umkhwa wahlukile kwixesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, ixesha eliphakamileyo lehla, ixesha elingaphandle kwexesha linyukile, lahlukile kumthetho wexesha elingaphandle kwexesha kwiminyaka edlulileyo.
Ukususela ngoDisemba, ukusasazeka kwexabiso le-cracker yedizili kwenyuka ngokukhawuleza, kwaza kwafikelela kwi-1013 yuan/ton ngoDisemba 7, ukusasazeka kwexabiso le-cracker enyuka ngokukhawuleza ngexesha lokusetyenziswa, uxinzelelo lwezixhobo ezikwindawo yemveliso ephantsi yeoyile yedizili kunye nexabiso eliphezulu le-odolo yenqanawa nako kuchaphazele imfuno yokuthengwa kwamanye amashishini orhwebo, kwaye intengiselwano ye-odolo yenqanawa yehliswe kakhulu. Kwaye ukunyuka kobonelelo lwale nyanga kunqunyelwe zizinto eziluhlaza, ukunyuka kunokuba kuncinci, nangona ezinye iifektri zokucoca eShandong zinokusebenzisa inxalenye yesabelo sonyaka ozayo kwangaphambili, kodwa uxwebhu lwemali oluvunyelweyo luka-2024 kulindeleke ukuba lukhutshwe ngaphambi kwe-25, isongezelelo sezinto eziluhlaza sincinci kakhulu, kunye nokuphola okukhulu emantla, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yehle, ukungalingani phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno kuya kulungiswa kancinci kancinci, abanye abarhwebi baqale ukunciphisa ukusasazeka kokuqhekeka, i-Bearish forward diesel. Kulindeleke ukuba ngoJanuwari kunyaka ozayo, njengoko ukunqongophala kwezixhobo eziluhlaza zokucoca kusonjululwe, kulindeleke ukuba unikezelo lunyuke, kwaye ixabiso le-diesel kunye nomahluko wexabiso lokuqhekeka kuyancitshiswa ukuya kwinqanaba elithile, kwaye ukudluliselwa kwenzuzo kuya kudluliselwa kancinci ukuya kwisiphelo sokuthengisa.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Disemba-14-2023