Iindaba ezimnandi zanda ngosuku emva kokuba irabha ivukile

Kule veki, ukusebenza ngokubanzi koqoqosho lweempahla kuqhubekile nokubuyela kwimeko entle, kukhuthaza imvakalelo yokunyuka kwemarike, inani lezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zaphesheya lalingaphantsi kunelo belilindelwe, ixabiso lokuthenga izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo lalinamandla, kwaye icala lokubonelela linyuse ixabiso lerabha. Iglu emnyama yokugcina indawo yokugcina impahla, ukukhula kweglue enemibala ekhanyayo kuye kwehla, uxinzelelo lwempahla luye lwehla. Izinto ezilungileyo ezisisiseko ziyalawula, kwaye ukunyuka kwexabiso lerabha kunamandla.

Ngokuwa kwamaxabiso eoyile ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe, imeko-bume yemarike yeempahla ayinanto, kwaye ixabiso lerabha lihlengahlengiswa emva kokunyuka. Ukusukela nge-17 kaNovemba, ixabiso eliqingqiweyo lerabha yendalo lehla (i-latex epheleleyo yi-13050 yuan/ton, -250/-1.88%; Inombolo 20 yesiqhelo saseThailand yi-1490 US dollars/ton, -30/-1.97%, elingana ne-10687 yuan/ton; Inombolo 20 yeThai Mix yi-12200 yuan/ton, -150/-1.21%).

Icala lokubonelela lihlala lilungile

Indawo yemveliso yaseThailand: Imvula iyonke eThailand inyukile xa ithelekiswa nexesha elidlulileyo, umsebenzi wokusika irabha kumantla-mpuma awunampembelelo ingako, imveliso yezinto eziluhlaza ibonisa ukunyuka okuncinci, imvula yesigaba sasezantsi, ubungakanani bemveliso yerabha busencinci kakhulu, ixabiso lokwenyani lokuthenga izinto eziluhlaza liphezulu kunexabiso lemarike. Amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza kulindeleke ukuba aqine, izibonelelo zaphesheya ziyanda, kodwa xa kuthelekiswa namaxabiso entengiso kunye nezinto eziluhlaza, inzuzo yemveliso yesityalo sokucubungula isengumo wokulahlekelwa, ubungakanani buncinci kwaye ixabiso liphezulu, umzi-mveliso awunamdla wokufumana amaxabiso aphezulu ezinto eziluhlaza, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kuthengiswa kakhulu kwiinyanga ezikude. Kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yeglue yaseThailand inciphe ngama-20% kunyaka, kwaye kusafuneka sinikele ingqalelo kwimveliso yezinto eziluhlaza zexesha laseThailand laseWang kwixesha elizayo.

Indawo yemveliso yaseYunnan: Ixabiso lokuthenga izinto eziluhlaza kwindawo yemveliso yaseYunnan liphezulu. Ngeveki, imvula kwindawo yemveliso yaseYunnan incinci, kwaye izinto eziluhlaza zikwimeko encinci. Ndive ukuba isixa esivela eMyanmar naseLaos eBanna Port sinciphile kakhulu, kwaye isizathu sokuncipha kukuba uninzi lwazo lwenziwe iimveliso ezigqityiweyo, kwaye isixa seemveliso ezigqityiweyo asininzi, kwaye uninzi lweempahla eziphumayo zikwi-arbitrage traders. Ezinye izityalo zokucubungula zithe ukuqala komsebenzi ngaphakathi kweveki kuncitshisiwe, kodwa kuxhomekeke ekunciphiseni kobonelelo lwezinto eziluhlaza.

Indawo yemveliso yaseHainan: Ixabiso lokuthenga izinto eziluhlaza kwindawo yemveliso yaseHainan lilungiswa ngokuthe chu. Okwangoku, ixabiso lezinto eziluhlaza lihlala liphezulu, kwaye umdla wabalimi beglue ulungile, kodwa uninzi lweendawo ezivelisayo lusanetha phakathi evekini, nto leyo echaphazela ukukhuthazwa komsebenzi wokusika irabha. Ndivile ukuba ekupheleni kweveki, ubungakanani beglue eqokelelwayo kwisiqithi bumalunga neetoni ezingama-3,000, buncitshiswe kancinci ekuqaleni kweveki, ukunikezelwa kweglue akwanelanga, ayikwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno eziqhelekileyo zemveliso yezityalo ezahlukeneyo zokucubungula, ezinye iifektri zabucala zifumana amaxabiso eglue angama-13100-13300 yuan, ixabiso eliphezulu limalunga ne-13400 yuan. Ukurhweba kwimarike yobisi oluxutyiweyo kuyasebenza kakhulu phakathi evekini, kwaye ngokufika kobusika, izityalo zokucubungula zonyuse umdla wazo wokuqokelelwa kwerabha kunye nemveliso. Kutshanje, kukho imvula eninzi kwindawo yemveliso yaseHainan, kwaye ubushushu buyehla, kukho ithuba elithile lokusikwa kwangoko, imfuno yasekhaya yexesha elifutshane yokuqwalasela nokulandela imveliso yezinto eziluhlaza kwindawo yemveliso.

Kule veki, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla eenkampani zesampulu zamatayara e-semi-steel zaseTshayina beliyi-78.88%, +0.19% inyanga nenyanga kunye +11.18% unyaka nonyaka. Kule veki, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla eenkampani zesampulu zamatayara e-all-steel zaseTshayina beliyi-63.89%, 0.32% inyanga nenyanga kunye +0.74% unyaka nonyaka. Ukuthunyelwa ngokubanzi kweenkampani zesampulu zamatayara e-semi-steel kuye kwehla kancinci, kwaye uluhlu lweemveliso ezigqityiweyo luye lwenyuka kancinci. Uluhlu lwazo zonke iinkampani zesampulu zamatayara entsimbi luqhubekile nokwanda, kwaye phantsi koxinzelelo lokuthengisa, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla eenkampani ngazinye ezivela kwiinkampani eziphambili zesampulu yokulawula imveliso liye laphantsi kancinci.

Jonga ngaphakathi emoyeni ushushu

Ukususela nge-16 kaNovemba ukuya kwi-23 kaNovemba ngo-2023, umlinganiselo we-"bullish", "bearish" kunye "nozinzo" kuphando lwendlela ebeluqhutywa ngayo yayiyi-42.0%, 25.9% kunye ne-42.0%, ngokwahlukeneyo. Ngokwembono yokujonga indlela yokuthengisa kule veki, icala lokubonelela, iindawo zemveliso zasekhaya sele ziza kuyeka ukuncipha ekupheleni kwenyanga, kwaye kukho iindaba zokunciphisa imveliso kwiindawo eziphambili zemveliso ezifana neThailand neVietnam kwiindawo zemveliso zangaphandle, okwenza amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza abe namandla; Umlinganiselo wemveliso kunye nokuthengiswa kwamashishini amatayara asezantsi ekupheleni kwemfuno uyehla; Ekupheleni kwempahla, impahla yaseQingdao yaqhubeka nokwehla, iglu emnyama yaqhubeka nokuya kwindawo yokugcina, kwaye iglu enemibala ekhanyayo yaqala ukuqokelela isitokhwe; Umoya wangoku ushushu, kodwa ukuwa ngokubanzi okanye okuphezulu kwixesha elizayo kusenokuvuma ukulinda sesona sizathu siphambili sokuqikelelwa kwengqondo kunye nozinzo lwemarike yerabha yendalo.

Kulindeleke ukuba kusekho indawo yokufumana inzuzo yexesha elifutshane

Kulindeleke ukuba imakethi yerabha yendalo yexesha elifutshane isenendawo yokunyuka okuncinci. Imakethi iqaphele inkxalabo malunga nobungakanani bezinto eziluhlaza kwindawo yemveliso yangaphambili yaseThailand, kwaye indawo yemveliso yasekhaya sele iza kungena kwixesha lokuyeka, isitokhwe esiphantsi sezinto eziluhlaza kumzi-mveliso, inzuzo enganeleyo yokucubungula okungaphezulu isenoxinzelelo kubungakanani bemveliso yerabha, kwaye isitokhwe seQingdao esibekwe ngaphezulu siyaqhubeka nokuya kwindawo yokugcina impahla, kwaye ixabiso lerabha lisenendawo yokunyuka. Icala lemfuno langena kancinci kancinci kwixesha lokungasebenzi ekupheleni konyaka, imfuno yokutshintshwa kwesiphelo iyancipha, isitokhwe seemveliso ezigqityiweyo zamashishini saphela, ukwakhiwa kwamashishini kwakusalindeleke ukuba buthathaka, umdla wokuzaliswa kwezinto eziluhlaza wacinezelwa, kwaye ukunyuka kwemarike yendawo kwakulinganiselwe. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lendawo yelatex epheleleyo kwimarike yaseShanghai kwiveki ezayo liza kubaleka phakathi kwe-13100-13350 yuan/ton; Ixabiso lendawo yaseThailand liqala phakathi kwe-12300-12450 yuan/ton.