Unyaka ka-2023 ufikelele esiphelweni sonyaka, ujonge emva kulo nyaka, imakethi ye-oyile ekrwada yamazwe aphesheya kwi-OPEC + yokucutha imveliso kunye nokuphazamiseka kwe-geopolitical kunokuchazwa njengokungalindelekanga, ukunyuka nokuhla.

1. Uhlahlelo lwexabiso le-oyile ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023

Kulo nyaka, i-oli ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe (i-Brent futures) iyonke ibonise ukuhla, kodwa iziko lexabiso lomxhuzulane liguqukile kakhulu. Ukususela nge-31 ka-Okthobha, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-2023 ye-oyile ekrwada ye-Brent yayiyi-82.66 yeedola zase-US / umphanda, phantsi kwe-16.58% ukusuka kwixabiso eliqhelekileyo kunyaka ophelileyo. Umkhwa wamaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe kulo nyaka ubonisa iimpawu “zeziko lomxhuzulane lihlile, langaphambili liphantsi kwaye liphezulu”, kunye noxinzelelo olwahlukeneyo lwezoqoqosho olunje ngentlekele yebhanki eYurophu nase-United States iye yavela phantsi kwemvelaphi. lokunyuka kwenzala kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, okukhokelele ekuthotyweni kwamaxabiso eoli, ehle ukuya kutsho kwi-16%. Emva kokungena kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ngenxa yenkxaso yamazwe amaninzi avelisa i-oyile anje nge-OPEC + yokucutha imveliso, izinto ezisisiseko zaqala ukuqaqambisa, i-OPEC + yokucumula imveliso yokucumula idlule imiphanda ye-2.6 yezigidi ngosuku, ilingana ne-2.7% yemveliso yeoli ekrwada yehlabathi. , Ukuqhuba amaxabiso eoli ekunyukeni malunga ne-20%, i-Brent crude oil futures iphinde ibuyele kuluhlu oluphezulu olungaphezulu kwe-80 yeedola / umgqomo.

Uluhlu lwe-2023 Brent luyi-$ 71.84- $ 96.55 / BBL, kunye neyona ndawo iphezulu eyenzekayo ngoSeptemba 27 kwaye iphantsi ngoJuni 12. $ 70- $ 90 umbhobho ngamnye luhlu oluqhelekileyo lokusebenza lwe-Brent crude oil futures ngo-2023. Ukususela ngo-Oktobha 31, i-WTI kunye nekamva le-oyile ekrwada ye-Brent yehle nge-12.66 yeedola / umphanda kunye ne-9.14 yeedola / umphanda ngokulandelelana ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu lonyaka.

Emva kokungena ngo-Okthobha, ngenxa yokuqhambuka kongquzulwano lwasePalestine-Israel, amaxabiso eoli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe enyuke kakhulu phantsi kweprimiyamu yomngcipheko we-geopolitical, kodwa ungquzulwano aluchaphazeli ukuveliswa kwamazwe avelisa ioyile enkulu, imingcipheko yokubonelela ibuthathaka, kunye ne-OPEC kunye ne-United States. States anda imveliso yeoli ekrwada, amaxabiso oyile ehla ngoko nangoko. Ngokukodwa, ingxabano yaqala ngo-Okthobha 7, kwaye ukususela ngo-Oktobha 19, i-Brent crude oil futures inyuke nge-$ 4.23 / umgqomo. Ukususela nge-31 ka-Oktobha, i-Brent crude oil futures yayiyi-$ 87.41 / umgqomo, phantsi kwe-$ 4.97 / umgqomo ukusuka ngo-Oktobha 19, ukucima zonke iinzuzo ukususela kwingxabano yase-Israel-Palestine.

Ii. Uhlalutyo lwezona zinto ziphambili zinempembelelo kwintengiso ye-oyile ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, zombini iimpembelelo zoqoqosho kunye ne-geopolitical kumaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada zonyukile. Impembelelo ye-macroeconomic kwi-oyile ekrwada igxininiswe ikakhulu kwicala lemfuno. Ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka, ingxaki yebhanki eYurophu nase-United States yaqhuma, amazwi e-hawkish ye-Federal Reserve yaziswa kakhulu ngo-Aprili, umngcipheko wetyala e-United States wabekwa phantsi koxinzelelo ngoMeyi, kunye nenzala ephezulu. Isantya semeko-bume esibangelwa kukunyuswa kwenzala ngoJuni kulinganiswe kuqoqosho, kwaye ubuthathaka kunye novakalelo oluphantsi kwinqanaba loqoqosho lwacinezela ngokuthe ngqo ixabiso le-oyile lamazwe ngamazwe ukusuka kuMatshi ukuya kuJuni. Ikwangumba ongundoqo ongalunganga wokuba amaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe angakwazi ukunyuka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Ngokwemigaqo ye-geopolitical, ukuqhambuka kwengxabano yase-Israel-Palestine ngo-Oktobha 7, umngcipheko we-geopolitical waphinda waqina, kwaye ixabiso leoli lamazwe ngamazwe libuyele kwindawo ephakamileyo kufuphi ne-90 yeedola / umgqomo phantsi kwenkxaso yale nto, kodwa ngemarike phinda uhlolisise i-real. Impembelelo yesi siganeko, inkxalabo malunga nemingcipheko yokubonelela yehla, kwaye amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada ehla.

Okwangoku, ngokubhekiselele kwizinto eziphambili ezichaphazelayo, inokushwankathelwa njengemiba elandelayo: ingaba ingxabano yase-Israel-yasePalestina iya kuchaphazela ukuveliswa kwabavelisi abakhulu be-oyile, ukwandiswa kwemveliso ye-OPEC + yokunciphisa imveliso ukuya ekupheleni konyaka, ukuphumla. yezohlwayo ezichasene neVenezuela yi-United States, ukunyuka kwemveliso yeoli ekrwada yase-US ukuya kwelona nqanaba liphezulu enyakeni, inkqubela phambili yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eYurophu nase-United States, eyona ntsebenzo yemfuno yaseAsia, ukwanda kwemveliso ye-Iranian kunye notshintsho. kwimvakalelo yomthengisi.

Yintoni ingqiqo emva kokuguquguquka kwemarike yeoli ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2023? Phantsi kokuphazamiseka ngokwelizwe, leliphi icala lemarike yeoli ekrwada ngokulandelayo? Ngomhla we-3 kaNovemba, i-15: 00-15: 45, Ulwazi lwe-Longzhong luya kuqalisa usasazo oluphilayo lwemarike yonyaka kwi-2023, eya kukunika inkcazo ecacileyo yexabiso leoli, iindawo ezishushu ze-macroeconomic, ukubonelela kunye nokufunwa kwezinto ezisisiseko kunye nexabiso leoli elizayo. Uqikelelo, uqikelele imeko yentengiso ngo-2024 kwangaphambili, kwaye uncede ujonge ucwangciso lweshishini!