I-Abstract: Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2023, imarike ye-phenol yasekhaya yenyuka kwaye yawa, kwaye ixabiso laliqhutywa ikakhulu kukubonelela kunye nezinto ezifunwayo. Ixabiso lendawo litshintshile malunga ne-6000-8000 yuan / toni, eyayikwizinga eliphantsi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo. Ngokwezibalo ze-Longzhong, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lephenol eMpuma yeChina kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023 yi-7,410 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-3,319 yuan / ton, okanye i-30.93%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-10,729 yuan / toni kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022. inqaku kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka yayiyi-8275 yuan/ton ngasekupheleni kukaFebruwari; Inqanaba eliphantsi laliyi-6200 yuan ngetoni nganye ekuqaleni kukaJuni.

1. Uphononongo lwemarike

Iholide yoNyaka oMtsha ibuyele kwisixeko, nangona i-inventory ye-Jiangyin phenol port iphantsi ukuya kwiitoni ze-11,000, kodwa ngokuqwalasela impembelelo yezixhobo ezintsha ze-phenol ketone kwimveliso, ukuthengwa kwe-terminal kwacotha, ukwehla kweemarike kwanda ushishino linda kwaye ubone; Emva kokuba izixhobo ezitsha zifakwe kwimveliso engaphantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe, indawo yayiqinile ukuvuselela imarike phezulu, kunye neholide yoMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo isondela, ukuchasana kwezothutho phakathi kwemimandla kwanda, kwaye imarike ngokuthe ngcembe yaguqukela kwimeko yokuvalwa. Emva kokubuyela kwimarike ngexesha leholide yoMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, i-phenol yamkele isiqalo esihle, ngokunyuka kwe-400-500 yuan / toni kwiintsuku ezimbini zokusebenza nje. Ukuqwalasela ukubuyiswa kwe-terminal emva kweholide, kuthatha ixesha lokuba imarike iyeke ukunyuka nokuhla, xa ixabiso liphantsi njenge-7700 yuan / ton, ngokuqwalasela ixabiso eliphezulu kunye nexabiso eliphakathi, injongo yokuthumela umthumeli ukuvelisa inzuzo iba buthathaka. NgoFebruwari, iiseti ezimbini zezixhobo ze-phenol ketone e-Lianyungang zisebenze ngokufanelekileyo, ilungelo lokuthetha ngemveliso yasekhaya kwimarike ye-phenol yandiswa, kwaye ukusebenza kweenqanawa ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye nemithwalo yempahla kwachatshazelwa yi-terminal waxing kunye ne-waxing ebandakanyekayo ekuthunyelweni kwabanikezeli. . Nangona ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kunye nomsebenzi wothethathethwano kwangelo xesha linye kwavuselelwa, inkxaso yayilinganiselwe, kwaye imarike iyonke yenyuka kakhulu kwaye yehla kancinci. Ngo-Matshi, ukuqala kwe-bisphenol A yehla, i-phenolic resin yangaphakathi yoxinzelelo lokhuphiswano lwasekhaya, ukuhla kwemfuno ekupheleni kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni kwe-phenol kwiindawo ezininzi, nangona ixabiso eliphezulu kunye nexabiso eliphakathi ngexesha lokuxhasa imarike phezulu, kodwa intonga ephezulu ayilula, imarike yokudinwa iphazamisekile phakathi kwabo.

Ukususela ngo-Epreli ukuya kuMeyi, izixhobo ze-phenol ze-ketone zasekhaya zingenise kwixesha eliphakathi lokugcinwa, impembelelo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno yomdlalo odibeneyo, imarike ngo-Epreli yayixutywe, indawo yangaphandle ngoMeyi yayibuthathaka, icala lemfuno lalinobuvila, ukulungiswa kwesixhobo. kunzima ukukhulula, ukuhla okuphantsi okukhokelwa yimarike, kunye nexabiso eliphantsi liqhubekile ukwenza izinto ezintsha. Kufutshane nombindi kaJuni, ukusebenza kwebhidi esezantsi kunyuse intatho-nxaxheba kushishino, ukujikeleziswa kwendawo yasekhaya kwanda, uxinzelelo lokuthumela lomphathi wempahla lwehla, umdla wanda, kunye nokuzaliswa ngokufanelekileyo kwesitishi phambi kweholide yeDragon Boat Festival, iziko elixhasayo lomxhuzulane lanyuka ngokuthe ngcembe. Emva koMnyhadala weSikhephe seDragon, ukusebenza kwentengiso yentengiso kuye kwafikelela esiphelweni okwethutyana, uthatho-nxaxheba kushishino lwehla, ukuhanjiswa kwecala lonikezelo kwaba buthathaka, ugqaliselo lwaqaqambisa umkhwa obuthathaka kancinci, kwaye urhwebo lwajika lwazola.

2. Uxinzelelo kwinzuzo kunye nelahleko

Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2023, i-avareji inzuzo ye-phenol ketone amashishini -356 yuan / ton, ukuncipha kwe-138.83% ngonyaka, ixabiso eliphezulu lenzuzo emva kombindi kaMeyi laliyi-217 yuan / ton, kunye nexabiso eliphantsi. yaba -1134.75 yuan/ton ekuqaleni kukaJuni. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2023, inzuzo enkulu yezixhobo zasekhaya ze-phenol ketone zixhaphake kakhulu, kwaye ixesha lenzuzo lilonke limalunga nenyanga eyi-1, kwaye inzuzo ayikho ngaphezu kwe-300 yuan / ton. Nangona ixabiso lezinto eziphindwe kabini kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ka-2023 lingaphantsi kwexesha elifanayo ngo-2022, ixabiso le-phenol ketone liyafana, libi nakakhulu kunokuphela kwezinto eziluhlaza, kwaye imeko yokulahlekelwa kwenzuzo kunzima ukuyinciphisa. .

3. Imbonakalo yemarike

Kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2023, phantsi kokulindela ukuba i-phenol yasekhaya kunye ne-downstream bisphenol Izixhobo ezitsha ziya kufakwa ekusebenzeni, ukubonelela kunye nephethini yemfuno iya kuhlala ilawula, kwaye imarike iya kutshintsha okanye iqheleke. Ukuchatshazelwa yiplani yemveliso yezixhobo ezitsha, ukhuphiswano phakathi kwempahla yasekhaya kunye nempahla yangaphandle, iimpahla zasekhaya kunye nezasekhaya ziya kuqiniswa ngakumbi, ukuqala kunye nokumisa imeko yezixhobo zasekhaya ze-phenol ketone ziyaguquguquka, kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nemeko yokhuphiswano lwasekhaya kwezinye iindawo ezisezantsi. inokunciphisa, isantya sokuveliswa kwe-bisphenol A kunye nokuqala kwezixhobo ezitsha kubaluleke kakhulu, ngokuqinisekileyo, kwimeko yokulahleka okuqhubekayo kumashishini e-phenol ketone. Iindleko kunye neentshukumo zamaxabiso nazo kufuneka zijongwe. Ngokucokisekileyo ukugweba imeko ukuba unikezelo kunye nemfuno ezisisiseko ziya kujongana kunye nenzuzo yangoku kunye nelahleko imeko, kulindeleke ukuba imarike phenol yasekhaya kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kunzima ukuba nokunyuka nokuwa okukhulu ukusebenza, kunye nokuguquguquka kwexabiso. uluhlu kulindeleke ukuba 6200-7500 yuan/ton.