Njengoko i-oyile ekrwada ivalwe phezulu ngobusuku, amaxabiso epetroli asekhaya kunye nedizili aphinda avula umjikelo omtsha wokunyuka, emva kwemini kwezinye iindawo, eyona yunithi iphambili yepetroli kunye nedizili inezihlengahlengiso ezimbini okanye ezintathu zokunyuka, kwaye idizili yaqala ukuba namandla. isicwangciso sokuthengisa esilinganiselweyo. Kungekudala, imfuno yepetroli ixhaswe ngokunyuka kwenani leehambo zasehlotyeni kunye neoli ye-air conditioning, kodwa idizili iye yaqhubeka ixhomekeke kwimvula eMntla naseMzantsi, kwaye imfuno ayiphucukanga kakhulu.

Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-Longzhong yokubeka iliso, kwiitheyibhile ezimbini ezingentla, ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti kulo nyaka, i-petroli yasekhaya kunye ne-diesel amaxabiso enyuka ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, i-petroli yenyuka phakathi kwe-45-367 yuan / ton, i-Shandong inokwanda okuncinci; Ukunyuka kwedizili kwiindawo ngeendawo yi-713-946 yuan/toni, kwaye ukunyuka kukhulu kuzo zonke iindawo, kwaye ukunyuka kwedizili kukhulu kunoko kwepetroli.

Emva kwemijikelo emininzi yokutyhalela phezulu, izizathu ezithile ziphantse zibe zezi zilandelayo:

1. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe

Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, iSaudi Arabia kunye neRashiya yakhulula ukucuthwa kwemveliso ngakumbi, kunye nencopho yokusetyenziswa kwamafutha e-United States kunye namathemba ezoqoqosho aseAsia kulindeleke ukuba kube ngcono, kunye nokuhla kwempahla ye-oyile ekrwada yorhwebo kwi-intanethi. IUnited States ixhaswa ziindaba ezimnandi, yaye amaxabiso eoli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe aye anyuka enyuka. Ukususela ngo-Agasti 3, i-Brent ivaliwe kwi-$ 85.14 / BBL, i-$ 10.49 / BBL okanye i-14.05% ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi.

2.ingeniso yepetroli yasekhaya kunye nedizili yokuthumela ngaphandle iphezulu

Ngokutsho kwe-Longzhong data monitoring, ukuthatha i-South China port njengomzekelo, ukususela phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaJuni kulo nyaka, i-petroli yasekhaya kunye ne-diesel i-arbitrage window ivuliwe emva komnye. Ukususela ngo-Agasti 3, inzuzo ye-petroli yaseChina ethunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-Singapore yayiyi-183 yuan / ton, i-322.48% ukusuka phakathi kuJuni; Inzuzo yokuthumela ngaphandle idizili ibiyi 708 yuan/toni, inyuke nge 319.08% ukusuka phakathi kuJuni.

Ngokunyuka kwepetroli yasekhaya kunye nenzuzo yedizili yokuthumela ngaphandle, imarike kulindeleke ukuba ithumele kumazwe angaphandle ezongezelelweyo, kwaye ezinye zeeyunithi eziphambili ngoJulayi ukuvula, ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, ezinye eziphambili eMpuma China 92# amaxabiso epetroli 8380 yuan/ton. , ukuya ku-Agasti 3, ixabiso lenyuka laya kwi-8700 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwe-320 yuan / ton okanye i-3.82%; Ixabiso ledizili evela kumazwe angaphandle linyuke ukusuka kwi-6,860 yuan/toni ukuya kwi-7,750 yuan/toni, ukonyuka nge-890 yuan/toni okanye i-12.97%. Njengoko iiyunithi eziphambili zaqala ukuqokelela umphunga kunye nedizili, abanye abaphakathi balandela, ixabiso lomthamo omnye wepetroli kunye neenqanawa zedizili lenyuka, kwaye nexabiso leoli ekrwada lehla ngamanye amaxesha, kodwa ixabiso lepetroli kunye nedizili lenyuka endaweni yoko. ukuwa.

3, abaqhubi beemarike banikela ingqalelo kwizabelo zangaphandle

Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iSebe lezoRhwebo laseTshayina likhuphe iibhetshi ezimbini zezabelo zeoyile esulungekisiweyo yokuthumela ngaphandle kulo nyaka, zizonke iitoni ezizigidi ezingama-27.99. Ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, umthamo othe wathunyelwa ngaphandle weemveliso ze-oyile esulungekisiweyo e-China ibizizigidi ezingama-20.3883 zeetoni. Ukuba iimveliso ze-oyile esulungekisiweyo phantsi kweliso elibotshwe phesheya zisusiwe, elona xabiso lithengisiweyo liyi-20.2729 yezigidi zeetoni, izinga lokugqitywa kwe-quota yokuthumela ngaphandle laliyi-72.43%, kwaye bekukho i-7.717,100 yeetoni zezabelo zokuthumela ngaphandle ekufuneka zigqitywe. Ngokutsho kolwazi lwe-Longzhong olufundwe kwiimarike, umthamo ocetywayo wokuthumela ngaphandle wemveliso yeoli ecocekileyo yaseChina ngoJulayi nango-Agasti yi-7.02 yezigidi zeetoni, ukuba ezi zixa zingathunyelwa ngaphandle, i-quota yokuthumela ngaphandle kwemveliso yeoli ecocekileyo yaseChina ngoJanuwari no-Agasti yi-97.88%, kwaye i-quota yeebhetshi ezimbini isetyenziswe ngokupheleleyo. Okwangoku, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwepetroli yasekhaya kunye ne-diesel kunenzuzo, ibhetshi yesithathu ye-quotas yokuthumela ngaphandle kulindeleke ukuba ikhutshwe malunga nombindi wale nyanga, ayikhupheli ngaphandle amathuba okuba amanye amaqumrhu athumela ngaphandle ukongeza i-petroli kunye ne-diesel kumazwe angaphandle.

I-4, umthamo wokugcinwa kwekhaya uncitshisiwe, kwaye unikezelo luye lwaphinda lwanda, kodwa impembelelo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike iyancipha.

Ngo-Agasti, isikali engundoqo China yokucokisa ukugcinwa isikali waqhubeka ukuhla, ngokutsho Longzhong iinkcukacha manani, ngo-Agasti kuphela Daqing yokusulungekiswa kunye nemichiza kunye Lanzhou Petrochemical ezimbini eziphambili ugcino lokucoca, ebandakanya umthamo ukugcinwa okanye 700,000 iitoni, ngaphantsi kuka Julayi 1.4 yeetoni million, ukwehla kwe 66%. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwedatha, isivuno se-oyile esipheleleyo sezinto eziphambili zokucoca ngo-Agasti kulindeleke ukuba zinyuke ukuya kwi-61.3%, ukuya kwi-0.75% ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo. Umlinganiselo waqhubeka ubuyela kwi-1.02. Imveliso yepetroli kunye ne-jet fuel yonyuka kwiinyanga ezintlanu ezilandelelanayo, kwaye imveliso yeoli ye-diesel yehla iinyanga ezintathu ezilandelelanayo. Ngoko ke, kulindeleke ukuba imveliso ecetywayo ye-steam, i-diesel kunye namalahle kwindawo yokucoca ephambili ngo-Agasti yi-11.02 yezigidi zeetoni, i-11.27 yezigidi zeetoni kunye ne-5.01 yezigidi zeetoni, ngokulandelanayo, okuyi-4.39%, -0.68% kunye + 7.92%.

Ngo-Agasti, ukugcinwa kwamandla okucoca okuzimeleyo akuzange kutshintshe kakhulu, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kubandakanye i-2.27 yezigidi zeetoni zokugcinwa kwamandla, ukwanda kweetoni ezingama-50,000 ukususela ngoJulayi, ukwanda kwe-2.25%. Ikakhulu ngenxa yokuba iindawo zokucoca zigqitywe ngoJulayi, ezifana neXintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye kunye nezinye iindawo zokucokisa, kunye neLanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, njl njl. ziya kuvulwa emva komnye ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, eziya kupheliswa. amandla okulungiswa kwesityalo se-Baolai Petrochemical ngo-Agasti. Ngokubanzi, ukuveliswa kweoli ecocekileyo yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba kwandiswe ngo-Agasti, phakathi kwayo, ukuveliswa kwepetroli kwanda inyanga nenyanga, kwaye ukuveliswa kwe-diesel akulindelekanga ukuba kutshintshe kakhulu.

Lilonke, amaxabiso epetroli asekhaya kunye nedizili aqhubekile nokunyuka, ikakhulu ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile ekrwada, inzuzo ephezulu yokuthumela ngaphandle, intengiso kulindeleke ukuba inyuse umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle, kwaye "igolide elithoba isilivere elineshumi" iyeza. Imarike kufuneka yenze imisebenzi yoluhlu kwangethuba, kwaye amaxabiso edizili kwangoko asezantsi, kwaye umdla wokusebenza kweemarike uphezulu xa kuthelekiswa nepetroli. Amaxabiso okuthengisa kulindeleke ukuba anyuke kwiveki ezayo, kwaye iindaba ze-oyile ekrwada ziseyinkxaso eyomeleleyo, kulindeleke ukuba ngokukhutshwa kwe-quota yokuthumela ngaphandle, imarike yepetroli kunye nedizili inokuqhubeka nokunyuka.