Njengoko ioyile eluhlaza ivaliwe ngobusuku obunye, amaxabiso epetroli nedizili asekhaya aphinde avula umjikelo omtsha wokunyuka, emva kwemini kwezinye iindawo, iyunithi ephambili yepetroli nedizili inotshintsho oluphindwe kabini okanye kathathu oluza kunyuka, kwaye idizili yaqala ukuba nesicwangciso sokuthengisa esilinganiselweyo. Kutshanje, imfuno yepetroli ixhaswe kukwanda kwenani leehambo zasehlotyeni kunye neoyile yomoya opholileyo, kodwa idizili iqhubekile nokuba phantsi kwemvula eMntla naseMzantsi, kwaye imfuno ayiphucukanga kakhulu.

Ngokutsho kokubeka esweni idatha yaseLongzhong, kwiitheyibhile ezimbini ezingentla, ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti kulo nyaka, amaxabiso epetroli nedizili asekhaya anyuke ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, ipetroli inyuke phakathi kwama-45-367 yuan/ton, iShandong inokunyuka okuncinci; Ukunyuka kwedizili kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo yi-713-946 yuan/ton, kwaye ukunyuka kukhulu kuzo zonke iindawo, kwaye ukunyuka kwedizili kukhulu kunokwepetroli.

Emva kwezihlandlo ezininzi zokutyhala phezulu, izizathu ezithile zezi zilandelayo:

1. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe

Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, iSaudi Arabia neRashiya zikhuphe ezinye iindlela zokunciphisa imveliso, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwepetroli eMelika naseAsia kube ngcono, kwaye ukwehla kweendawo zokugcina ioyile engcolileyo zorhwebo eMelika kuxhaswa ziindaba ezimnandi, kwaye amaxabiso eoyile engcolileyo yamazwe ngamazwe anyuke ngokunyuka. Ukusukela nge-3 ka-Agasti, iBrent ivale kwi-$85.14 / BBL, inyuke nge-$10.49 / BBL okanye i-14.05% ukusuka ekuqaleni kukaJulayi.

2. Inzuzo yokuthumela ngaphandle ipetroli nedizili yasekhaya iphezulu

Ngokutsho kweLongzhong data monitoring, xa sijonga izibuko laseMzantsi China njengomzekelo, ukususela phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaJuni kulo nyaka, ifestile ye-arbitrage yokuthumela ipetroli nedizili yasekhaya ivuliwe enye emva kwenye. Ukusukela nge-3 ka-Agasti, inzuzo yokuthunyelwa kwepetroli yiTshayina eSingapore yayiyi-183 yuan/ton, inyuke nge-322.48% ukusuka phakathi kukaJuni; inzuzo yokuthunyelwa kwedizili ngaphandle yayiyi-708 yuan/ton, inyuke nge-319.08% ukusuka phakathi kukaJuni.

Ngenxa yokwanda kwenzuzo yokuthumela ngaphandle ipetroli nedizili ngaphakathi, kulindeleke ukuba imakethi ithumele kwamanye amazwe ezinye izinto ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kwaye ezinye zeeyunithi eziphambili ngoJulayi ziya kuvulwa, ekuqaleni kukaJulayi, ezinye zeeyunithi eziphambili eMpuma China ngamaxabiso epetroli angama-92# angama-8380 yuan/ton, ukuya kuthi ga nge-3 ka-Agasti, ixabiso lenyuke laya kwi-8700 yuan/ton, ukunyuka kwe-320 yuan/ton okanye i-3.82%; Ixabiso ledizili elingeniswe kwamanye amazwe lenyuke ukusuka kwi-6,860 yuan/ton ukuya kwi-7,750 yuan/ton, ukunyuka kwe-890 yuan/ton okanye i-12.97%. Njengoko iiyunithi eziphambili zaqala ukuqokelela umphunga kunye nedizili, abanye abameli balandela, ixabiso elinye leenqanawa zepetroli kunye nedizili lenyuka, kwaye nexabiso leoyile ekrwada lehla ngamanye amaxesha, kodwa ixabiso lepetroli kunye nedizili lenyuka endaweni yokuhla.

3, abaqhubi bemarike banikela ingqalelo kwii-quota zokuthumela ngaphandle

Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iSebe lezoRhwebo laseTshayina likhuphe iibhetshi ezimbini zee-quota zokuthumela ngaphandle ioyile ecociweyo kulo nyaka, zizonke zifikelela kwi-27.99 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, umthamo oqokelelweyo wokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zeoyile ecociweyo eTshayina wawuzii-20.3883 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukuba iimveliso zeoyile ecociweyo ezingenisiweyo phantsi kweliso elibukhali laphesheya kwezilwandle zisusiwe, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle wawuzii-20.2729 yezigidi zeetoni, izinga lokugqiba isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle laliyi-72.43%, kwaye bekukho iitoni eziyi-7.717,100 zee-quota zokuthumela ngaphandle eziza kugqitywa. Ngokutsho kolwazi lwaseLongzhong olufunyenwe kwimarike, umthamo ocwangcisiweyo wokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zeoyile ecociweyo zaseTshayina ngoJulayi nango-Agasti zi-7.02 yezigidi zeetoni, ukuba ezi zixa zingathunyelwa ngaphandle, isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zeoyile ecociweyo zaseTshayina ngoJanuwari nango-Agasti si-97.88%, kwaye isabelo seebhetshi ezimbini sisetyenziswa ngokupheleleyo. Okwangoku, ukuthunyelwa kwepetroli nedizili ngaphakathi ekhaya kunenzuzo, iqela lesithathu lezabelo zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuba likhutshwe phakathi kule nyanga, musa ukuyirhoxisa into yokuba amanye amaziko athumela kwamanye amazwe angeze ukuthunyelwa kwepetroli nedizili.

4, amandla okugcina izinto ekhaya anciphile, kwaye ukubonelela ngezinto kuphinde kwanda, kodwa impembelelo yokubonelela ngezinto kunye nemfuno kwimarike iye yaba buthathaka.

Ngo-Agasti, isikali sokugcinwa kweendawo zokucocwa kweoli eziphambili zaseTshayina saqhubeka nokuhla, ngokwezibalo zolwazi zaseLongzhong, ngo-Agasti kuphela ukulungiswa kweendawo zokucocwa kweoli zaseDaqing kunye neekhemikhali kunye neLanzhou Petrochemical ezimbini eziphambili, ezibandakanya amandla okugcinwa okanye iitoni ezingama-700,000, ngaphantsi kwe-1.4 yezigidi zeetoni zikaJulayi, ukwehla kwama-66%. Ngokwezibalo zedatha, isivuno seoli iyonke kwiindawo zokucocwa kweoli eziphambili ngo-Agasti kulindeleke ukuba sinyuke siye kuma-61.3%, sinyuke nge-0.75% ukusuka kwinyanga ephelileyo. Umlinganiselo uqhubeke nokuhla uye kwi-1.02. Isivuno sepetroli kunye nepetroli yejethi sanda iinyanga ezintlanu zilandelelana, kwaye isivuno seoyile yedizili sehla iinyanga ezintathu zilandelelana. Ke ngoko, kulindeleke ukuba imveliso ecwangcisiweyo yomphunga, idizili kunye namalahle kwindawo yokucocwa kweoli ephambili ngo-Agasti yi-11.02 yezigidi zeetoni, iitoni ezili-11.27 yezigidi kunye neetoni ezi-5.01 yezigidi, ngokwahlukeneyo, eziyi-+4.39%, -0.68% kunye ne-+7.92%.

Ngo-Agasti, amandla okugcina izinto ezizimeleyo zicocekile awatshintshanga kangako, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kubandakanye iitoni ezizizigidi ezingama-2.27 zamandla okugcina izinto, ukonyuka kweetoni ezingama-50,000 ukusukela ngoJulayi, ukonyuka kwe-2.25%. Ngokuyintloko kungenxa yokuba iindawo zokucoca ezihlaziyiweyo ngoJulayi, ezifana neXitai Petrochemical, iYatong Petrochemical, iPanjin Haoye kunye nezinye iindawo zokucoca izinto, kunye neLanqiao Petrochemical, iWudi Xinyue, iDalian Jinyuan, iXinhai Shihua, njl. ziya kuvulwa nganye emva kwenye ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, nto leyo eya kunciphisa amandla okuhlaziya izityalo zeBaolai Petrochemical ngo-Agasti. Lilonke, imveliso yeoyile ecociweyo yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngo-Agasti, phakathi kwayo, imveliso yepetroli inyuke inyanga nenyanga, kwaye imveliso yedizili ayilindelwanga ukuba itshintshe kakhulu.

Lilonke, amaxabiso epetroli nedizili asekhaya aqhubekile nokunyuka, ikakhulu ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli ekrwada, inzuzo ephezulu yokuthumela ngaphandle, kulindeleke ukuba imakethi inyuse umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle, kwaye "igolide elinesithoba lesilivere ezilishumi" liyeza, imakethi kufuneka yenze imisebenzi yokugcina izinto kwangaphambili, kwaye amaxabiso edizili okuqala aphantsi kakhulu, kwaye umdla wokusebenza kwemakethi uphezulu kakhulu xa uthelekiswa nepetroli. Amaxabiso okuthengisa kulindeleke ukuba anyuke kwiveki ezayo, kwaye iindaba zeoyile ekrwada zisaxhaswa kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuba ngokukhutshwa kwesabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle, imakethi yepetroli nedizili inokuqhubeka inyuka.