UNovemba ufikelele esiphelweni, izinto ezintsha ze-PE saqhubeka zihla zinyuka; Ukuqiniswa kweemfuno ezisezantsi, ukukhululwa okulinganiselweyo; Ingqondo yoshishino lokuhlaziya kwakhona ichatshazelwa yizinto ezingalunganga kunye nokutshintsha rhoqo, kodwa ukuphinda kusetyenziswe imeko yempahla ye-PE kunye nengqolowa yexabiso kunzima ukuyihambisa, engabandakanyi ukuziphatha korhwebo kwishishini lokuhlaziya.

Okokuqala, i-macro support passivation imathiriyeli entsha ye-PE yehla

Imakethi ye-polyethylene igaywe ngokupheleleyo kwinkxaso eqinile yecala le-macro, kodwa akukho khokelo oluhle ngakumbi, inkxaso yeendleko iyaqhubeka ikhulula, imarike ye-polyethylene ibuyela kwi-bearish fundamentals, kwaye ixabiso lemarike liphakama kwaye liwa. Iifektri ezisezantsi zifuna nje ukuba zisekho, kunye nokuhla kwamaxabiso emarike, iifektri ezisezantsi ukwenza isitokhwe esisezantsi, uluhlu lweshishini lemveliso kunye noluhlu lwesampula lwentlalo luphantsi kancinci, imarike yepolyethylene yaqala kancinci ukwakha ezantsi.

Amaxabiso e-PE ezinto ezitsha aqhubeka ehla, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala uyaqhubeka ukuncipha, ukusukela ngoNovemba 24, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala uwile kwi-1200 yuan / ton, kwaye phantsi koxinzelelo olukhulu olubi, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala ziya kuqhubeka zicutheka, zicinezele ngakumbi ukuhamba kwamasuntswana asetyenzisiweyo.

Okwesibini, ukuqala komlambo osezantsi kwaye uqalise ukuthengwa kwe-stop-start kunye nee-odolo zesiqhelo

I-PE esetyenzisiweyo kwidayagram yokuqalisa imveliso esezantsi

Kule veki, kukho iyantlukwano kwisantya sokusebenza kwamashishini omboniso bhanyabhanya wezolimo kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo yelizwe. Phakathi kwabo, izinga lokusebenza kwamashishini kuMntla-mpuma kunye noMntla China wehla phakathi kwe-1% -5%, ikakhulu ngenxa yomoya obandayo eNortheast China ngaphambili, ukuphela kwexesha lefilimu lingaphambi kweminye imimandla, kunye nezinga lokusebenza INorth China yehla kancinci. EMpuma yeChina, eMzantsi China, kuMbindi weChina, eMntla-ntshona nakumazantsi-ntshona eTshayina, izinga lokusebenza kwamashishini lenyuke phakathi kwe-1% kunye ne-5%.

Ngokwemeko yemarike yangoku, i-61.40% yamashishini efilimu yezolimo isabambe ingqondo ezinzileyo kwixabiso elihambelanayo, kwaye ikholelwa ukuba i-waand-see mentality of terminal enterprises inamandla, kwaye imiyalelo eqokelelweyo yefilimu yezolimo iqala ukunciphisa, umlambo ongasentla. inkxaso iyancipha, kwaye ixabiso lezinto eziluhlaza lizinzile ngokukodwa kwinqanaba elilandelayo. I-31.58% yamashishini efilimu yezolimo abambe isimo sengqondo esincinci kumaxabiso ahambelanayo, ekholelwa ukuba ukulinda nokubona ukucinga kwamashishini e-terminal yomelele, kwaye imiyalelo eqokelelweyo yefilimu yezolimo iqala ukuhla, inkxaso ephezulu iyancipha, kwaye ixabiso izinto ezikrwada zizinzile ikakhulu kwinqanaba lamva. I-7.02% yamashishini efilimu yezolimo abambe isimo sengqondo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ahambelanayo, ukuba ukuhla ngokubanzi kwemveliso yefilimu yezolimo akubonakali, kusekho inkxaso yemfuno yezinto eziluhlaza, kwaye amaxabiso e-polyethylene anesithuba esincinci sokuhlola. Isishwankathelo, uninzi lwamashishini eemveliso ezisezantsi abambe umbono ozinzileyo wemarike yasemva kwemini, ehambelana nokuziphatha korhwebo olusezantsi kwimarike yasemva kwemini, kwaye inokunika inkxaso ethile kumasuntswana asetyenziswe ngokutsha.

Okwesithathu, isimo sengqondo esibi seshishini lokuhlaziya azinzanga

Okwangoku, intsimi yokuvuselela, i-bearish sentiment isasazeka, inkxaso ye-bearish iyancipha, i-Xiaobian ekuhlaziyweni kwengqondo ye-PE yoshishino lwe-forecast, i-39.97% ijonge ingqondo ukuze ibone ukuzinza, i-50.86% ye-mentality bearish, i-8.63% efanelekileyo ye-bullish. Ngaphantsi kwe-off-season atmosphere, ukuthengwa kwemathiriyeli ekrwada kwiifektri zeemveliso ezisezantsi kwehle kakhulu, kwaye ixabiso lezinto ezitsha ze-PE liye lahla linyuka, nangona umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala usekuluhlu olungaphezulu kwe-yuan eyi-1,000. ngetoni nganye, kodwa umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala awanelanga kwimarike yexesha elizayo, kwaye umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezinto ezintsha nezindala uya kuqhubeka ucutheka. Ukuchacha koqoqosho lwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuyacotha, i-off-season ye-downstream i-odolo yemveliso yemveliso kunokuba nzima ukuyifumana, ulwakhiwo aluphezulu ekuthengeni izinto eziluhlaza buthathaka. Ngokusekelwe kwezi zizathu zingasentla, imboni yokuhlaziya inesimo sengqondo esine-bearish ngokubhekiselele kwimarike yexesha elizayo.

Isishwankathelo, ukunyuka kwamva nje kwintsimi, onke amaqela kwi-industrial chain chain aneenguqu ezinkulu okanye ezincinci, kodwa ishishini lokuvuselela lilumke ngakumbi, lidityaniswa nenkxaso yecala leendleko, ishishini lokuvuselela amasuntswana omsebenzi ozinzile ngakumbi, imarike yexesha elizayo. iya kuqhubeka nokuzinzisa imarike, isantya sempahla siyacotha. Fujian uxinzelelo oluphezulu olumhlophe ipase eprayimari isuntswana ireferensi yesiqhelo 6200-6300 yuan/ton, Hebei uxinzelelo oluphantsi Wahaha imathiriyeli yokutyumza eqhelekileyo mainstream reference 4400 yuan/toni, Hebei uxinzelelo oluphezulu olumhlophe ipase primary isuntswana ireferensi yexabiso 6100-6300 yuan/ton, Hebei Wahaha white Isuntswana lereferensi ixabiso eliqhelekileyo 5900-6000 yuan/ton, Juxian EVA granulation mainstream ixabiso reference 6000-6200 yuan/toni.