Iimeko zemarike kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo azilingani, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukungaqiniseki kwe-PP kunyuke kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2021. Izinto ezixhasa amaxabiso kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka (ezifana nemfuno esempilweni kunye nokunikezelwa okuncinci kwehlabathi) kulindeleke ukuba ziqhubeke kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Kodwa impembelelo yazo isenokubuthathaka ngenxa yobunzima obuqhubekayo bokuhambisa izinto eYurophu, njengoko i-United States ilungiselela ixesha elizayo leenkanyamba kunye namandla amatsha emveliso e-Asia.

Ukongeza, umjikelo omtsha wosulelo olutsha lwe-crown usasazeka e-Asia, nto leyo ephazamisa ulindelo lwabantu lokuphucula imfuno ye-PP kulo mmandla kwixesha elizayo.

Ukungaqiniseki kobhubhane waseAsia kuyanda, okuthintela imfuno ephantsi

Kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka, imakethi ye-Asian PP yayixubene, njengoko imfuno enamandla yezicelo zonyango kunye nokupakisha ezisezantsi isenokuncitshiswa kukwanda kokunikezelwa, ukuqhambuka okutsha kobhubhane omtsha we-crown kunye neengxaki eziqhubekayo kwishishini lokuthumela iikhonteyina.

Ukususela ngoJuni ukuya ekupheleni kuka-2021, kulindeleke ukuba kusetyenziswe okanye kuqaliswe kwakhona malunga neetoni ezi-7.04 zezigidi ngonyaka zemveliso ye-PP e-Asia naseMbindi Mpuma. Oku kuquka amandla e-China ayi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kunye namandla e-2.74 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kwezinye iindawo.

Kukho ukungaqiniseki ngenkqubela yokwenyani kwezinye iiprojekthi zokwandisa. Xa kujongwa ukulibaziseka okunokwenzeka, impembelelo yezi projekthi kubonelelo kwikota yesine ka-2021 isenokuhlehliselwa ku-2022.

Imithombo ithi ngexesha lokunqongophala kwe-PP kwihlabathi liphela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, abavelisi baseTshayina babonakalise ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuthumela i-PP kwamanye amazwe, nto leyo encede ukwandisa iindlela zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe nokwandisa ukwamkelwa kwe-PP yaseTshayina ngamaxabiso akhuphisanayo kwimarike.

Nangona ukuvulwa kwexesha elide kweefestile ze-arbitrage zokuthumela ngaphandle zaseTshayina ezifana noFebruwari ukuya ku-Epreli kungaqhelekanga, njengoko isantya sokwandiswa kwamandla sikhawuleza, abathengisi baseTshayina banokuqhubeka behlola amathuba okuthumela ngaphandle, ngakumbi kwimpahla ye-polymer efanayo.

Nangona imfuno yezicelo zonyango, ucoceko kunye nokupakisha, ugonyo kunye nokubuyiselwa koqoqosho oluthile kuya kunceda ukuxhasa imfuno ye-PP, kukho umjikelo omtsha e-Asia, ingakumbi e-India (iziko lesibini ngobukhulu lemfuno kwilizwekazi) Emva kobhubhane, ukungaqiniseki kuya kusanda.

Ngokufika kwexesha leenkanyamba, ukuhanjiswa kwe-PP kummandla we-US Gulf kuya kuhlala kuqinile

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2021, imakethi ye-US PP kuya kufuneka ijongane nemiba ephambili, kuquka ukuphendula kwimfuno esempilweni, ukungabikho kombane kunye nexesha elizayo leenkanyamba.

Abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike baza kujongana nokunyuka kwexabiso leesenti ezisi-8/lb (US$176/ton) okubhengezwe ngababoneleli ngoJuni. Ukongeza, ngenxa yokunyuka kwakhona kwamaxabiso e-monomer yezinto eziluhlaza, ixabiso lisenokuqhubeka nokunyuka.

Ukwanda kokunikezelwa kulindeleke ukuba kuhlangabezene nemfuno enamandla yasekhaya ye-resin, nto leyo eyenza ukunikezelwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kube buthathaka ngaphambi kowama-2021. Imarike iqikelela ukuba njengoko izinga lokusebenza libuyela kwisiqhelo ngoJuni, amaxabiso aza kuwa phantsi koxinzelelo, kodwa njengoko amaxabiso enyuka kwikota yesibini, olu luvo luya kuncipha.

Ixabiso eliphambili lePlatts FAS eHouston linyuke nge-US$783/ton ukusukela nge-4 kaJanuwari, ukunyuka kwe-53%. Ngelo xesha, laliqikelelwa kwi-US$1466/ton, njengoko isivuthuvuthu sasebusika kuloo ndawo savala izityalo ezininzi zemveliso, nto leyo eyayenza mandundu imeko yokubonelela ngeTight. Idatha yePlatts ibonisa ukuba ixabiso lifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu le-US$2,734/ton ngomhla we-10 kaMatshi.

Ngaphambi kobusika obubandayo, ishishini le-PP liye lachaphazeleka ziinkanyamba ezimbini ngo-Agasti nango-Okthobha ka-2020. Ezi nkanyamba zimbini zichaphazele iifektri zaza zanciphisa imveliso. Abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike banokujonga imeko yemveliso kwi-US Gulf, ngelixa belawula ngononophelo izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ukuze baphephe ukuncipha okungakumbi kokunikezelwa.

Ixesha leenkanyamba zase-US liqala ngomhla woku-1 kweyeSilimela kwaye liza kuhlala kude kube ngumhla wama-30 kweyeNkanga.

Kukho ukungaqiniseki ngokunikezelwa kwezinto eYurophu kuba ukungeniswa kwezinto kwamanye amazwe kujongene nobunzima bokunqongophala kwezikhongozeli kwihlabathi liphela

Ngenxa yokunqongophala kwezikhongozeli ezithintela ukungeniswa kwemveliso e-Asia, kulindeleke ukuba ukuhanjiswa kwe-PP eYurophu kujongene nezinto ezingathandekiyo. Nangona kunjalo, ngokukhuthazwa ngempumelelo kwezitofu kwilizwekazi lase-Afrika, ukususwa kwemiqathango enxulumene nobhubhane kunye notshintsho kwindlela yokuziphatha kwabathengi, iimfuno ezintsha zinokuvela.

Ii-odolo ze-PP ezisempilweni kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2021 zenze amaxabiso afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu. Ngenxa yokunqongophala kobonelelo, ixabiso eliqingqiweyo lee-PP homopolymers kuMntla-ntshona Yurophu lenyuke nge-83%, lafikelela kwincopho ye-1960 euros/ton ngo-Epreli. Abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike bavumile ukuba amaxabiso e-PP kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka asenokuba afikelele kumda ophezulu kwaye anokuhlaziywa ezantsi kwixesha elizayo.

Umenzi wemveliso uthe: “Ngokwembono yamaxabiso, imakethi ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kodwa andicingi ukuba kuza kubakho ukwehla okukhulu kwemfuno okanye amaxabiso.”

Ngokuphathelele kulo nyaka uphela, imakethi ye-PP yaseYurophu iya kufuna amanyathelo okulungisa ukuze ihlawule ukunqongophala kweekhonteyina zehlabathi, okubangele ukulibaziseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kunye neendleko ezongezelelweyo zothutho ukuze imakethi ihlale ilungelelene.

Abavelisi kunye nabaprosesa baza kusebenzisa ixesha lesiqhelo lokuthula ehlotyeni ukwandisa amanqanaba empahla kunye nokulungiselela ukuphinda kufuneke okulindelekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.

Ukuncitshiswa kwemiqathango yokuvalwa kwezithuthi eYurophu kulindeleke ukuba kufake imfuno entsha kuzo zonke iindawo zoshishino lweenkonzo, kwaye ukwanda kwemfuno yokupakisha kunokuqhubeka. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kobungakanani bokubuyiselwa kwentengiso yeemoto eYurophu, imbonakalo yemfuno kwishishini leemoto ayicacanga.