Nangona inkungu yobhubhane omtsha we-crown ngo-2021 isekhona, ukusetyenziswa kwemveliso kuyanda kancinci kancinci ngokufika kwentwasahlobo. Iqhutywa kukunyuka kwe-oyile ekrwada, imakethi yasekhaya yeekhemikhali yazisa imakethi yenkunzi. Kwangaxeshanye, imakethi ye-aniline nayo yazisa umzuzu oqaqambileyo. Ukusukela ekupheleni kukaMatshi, ixabiso lemakethi ye-aniline lafikelela kwi-13,500 yuan/ton, elona nqanaba liphezulu ukusukela ngo-2008.

Ukongeza kwicala leendleko ezilungileyo, ukunyuka kwemarike ye-aniline ngeli xesha kuxhaswe nalicala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Ubungakanani bokufakelwa okutsha bebungafikeleli kulindelo. Kwangaxeshanye, ukufakwa okuphambili kwahlengahlengiswa, kunye nokwandiswa kwe-MDI esezantsi, icala lemfuno lalinamandla, kwaye imakethi ye-aniline yayinyuka. Ekupheleni kwekota, ingcinga yokuqikelela yathomalala, uninzi lweemveliso zafikelela kwincopho kwaye isixhobo sokugcina i-aniline sasisele siza kuqalisa kwakhona, kwaye imakethi yajika yawa, okulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwingqiqo.

Ukusukela ekupheleni kuka-2020, amandla emveliso ye-aniline yelizwe lam amalunga ne-3.38 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo ethetha i-44% yamandla emveliso yehlabathi. Ubuninzi bemveliso ye-aniline, kunye nemiqathango yokusingqongileyo, bunciphise unikezelo kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Akuyi kubakho zongezo zintsha ngo-2020, kodwa ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla emveliso ye-MDI esezantsi, i-aniline iya kuqalisa olunye ulwandiso ngo-2021. Isityalo esitsha saseJiangsu Fuqiang esineetoni ezili-100,000 saqaliswa ukusebenza ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka, kwaye isityalo esitsha saseYantai Wanhua esineetoni ezingama-540,000 naso sicwangciselwe ukuqaliswa ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Kwangaxeshanye, isityalo saseFujian Wanhua esinomthamo weetoni ezingama-360,000 siqalile ukwakhiwa kwaye kucwangciselwe ukuba siqalise ukusebenza ngo-2022. Ngelo xesha, umthamo wemveliso ye-aniline eTshayina uza kufikelela kwi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye iWanhua Chemical nayo iza kuba ngumvelisi we-aniline omkhulu kwihlabathi onokukwazi ukuvelisa iitoni ezi-2 yezigidi.

Ukusetyenziswa kwe-aniline kuncinci kakhulu. I-80% ye-aniline isetyenziselwa ukuvelisa i-MDI, i-15% isetyenziswa kushishino lwezongezo zerabha, kwaye ezinye zisetyenziswa kwicandelo ledayi, amayeza kunye nezibulali zinambuzane. Ngokwezibalo ze-intanethi zeekhemikhali, ukususela ngo-2021 ukuya ku-2023, i-MDI iya kuba nokwanda kwe-2 yezigidi zeetoni zamandla emveliso kwaye iya kugaya i-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni zamandla emveliso ye-aniline. Izongezo zerabha zisetyenziswa kakhulu ekuveliseni amatayara kwaye zidibene ngakumbi nemarike yeemoto. Kwixesha lasemva kobhubhane, zombini iimoto kunye namatayara ziye zanda kwinqanaba elithile. Kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yezongezo zerabha inyuke ngokuthe ngqo. Nangona kunjalo, ngoSeptemba 2020, i-European Union yabhengeza i-aniline njenge-carcinogen yodidi lwesibini kunye ne-teratogen yodidi lwesibini, kwaye kuyacetyiswa ukuba kuncitshiswe ukusetyenziswa kwayo kwezinye izinto zokudlala. Kwangaxeshanye, iimpawu ezininzi zempahla nazo zifake i-aniline kuluhlu lwezinto ezithintelweyo kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Njengoko iimfuno zabathengi zokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nempilo zisanda, inxalenye esezantsi ye-aniline iya kuthotyelwa yimida ethile.

Ngokuphathelele ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle, ilizwe lam lilizwe elithumela ngaphandle i-aniline. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle ubandakanye malunga ne-8% yemveliso yonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo ubonakalise ukuhla unyaka nonyaka. Ukongeza ekwandeni kwemfuno yasekhaya, ubhubhane omtsha we-crown, iirhafu ezongezelelweyo ezibekwe yi-United States, kunye nokuchaswa kokulahla inkunkuma eIndiya zezona zizathu ziphambili zokwehla kokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-aniline. Idatha yerhafu ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngo-2020 kuya kuba yi-158,000 yeetoni, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwama-21%. Amazwe athumela ngaphandle aquka iHungary, iIndiya neSpain. IWanhua Bosu inesixhobo se-MDI eHungary, kwaye kukho imfuno ethile ye-aniline yasekhaya. Nangona kunjalo, isityalo saseBosu siceba ukwandisa umthamo we-aniline kulo nyaka, kwaye umthamo wokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-aniline yasekhaya uya kuncipha ngakumbi ngelo xesha.

Ngokubanzi, ukunyuka okukhulu kwimarike ye-aniline kuqhutywe ziinzuzo ezininzi ngokweendleko, ukubonelela kunye nemfuno. Ngexesha elifutshane, imakethi inyuke kakhulu kwaye isengozini yokuwa nangaliphi na ixesha; ekuhambeni kwexesha, ukwehla kwemarike kuxhaswa yimfuno ephezulu ye-MDI, Imakethi iya kuba nethemba kwiminyaka eli-1-2 ezayo. Nangona kunjalo, ngokuqiniswa kokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo lwasekhaya kunye nokugqitywa kokuhlanganiswa kwe-aniline-MDI, indawo yokuhlala yezinye iifektri iya kuncitshiswa, kwaye uxinano lwemizi-mveliso kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke ngakumbi.