Nangona inkungu yesibetho esitsha sesithsaba ngo-2021 isekhona, ukusetyenziswa ngokuthe ngcembe kukhula ngokufika kwentwasahlobo. Iqhutywa yi-rebound kwi-oyile ekrwada, intengiso yeekhemikhali yasekhaya yangenisa imarike yenkunzi. Ngexesha elifanayo, imarike ye-aniline nayo yazisa umzuzu oqaqambileyo. Ukusukela ekupheleni kuka-Matshi, ixabiso lemarike ye-aniline lifikelele kwi-13,500 yuan/toni, elona nqanaba liphezulu ukususela ngo-2008.

Ukongeza kwicala leendleko ezilungileyo, ukunyuka kwemarike ye-aniline ngeli xesha kukwaxhaswa kwicala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Umthamo wofakelo olutsha wawa phantsi kobekulindelekile. Ngelo xesha, ukufakelwa okuphambili kwagqitywa, kunye nokwandiswa kwe-MDI esezantsi, icala lemfuno lalinamandla, kwaye imarike ye-aniline yayinyuka. Ekupheleni kwekota, uluvo oluqikelelwayo lwaphola phantsi, uninzi lwezinto ezithengiswayo zaphakama kwaye isixhobo sokugcina i-aniline sasiza kuqalisa kwakhona, kwaye imarike yajika yawa, okulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwingqiqo.

Ukuya ekupheleni kuka-2020, ilizwe lam lilonke umthamo wemveliso ye-aniline umalunga ne-3.38 yezigidi zeetoni, ezibalelwa kwi-44% yomthamo wemveliso yehlabathi. Ukugqithiswa kweshishini le-aniline, kunye nezithintelo zokusingqongileyo, kunciphise unikezelo kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo. Akuyi kubakho izongezo ezintsha kwi-2020, kodwa iqhutywa kukukhula komthamo wemveliso ye-MDI esezantsi, i-aniline iya kungenisa olunye ulwandiso ngo-2021. Isityalo esitsha se-Jiangsu Fuqiang se-100,000-toni entsha sisetyenziswe ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka, kunye ne-Yantai Wanhua's 540,000- umatshini omtsha weetoni nawo ucwangciselwe ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Kwangaxeshanye, iplanti yeFujian Wanhua yeetoni ezingama-360,000 sele iqalile ukwakhiwa kwaye icwangciselwe ukuba iqalise ukusebenza ngo-2022. Ngelo xesha, imveliso ye-aniline iyonke yaseTshayina iya kufikelela kwi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye i-Wanhua Chemical iya kuba ngoyena mvelisi mkhulu we-aniline emhlabeni. nomthamo wemveliso we-2 yezigidi zeetoni.

Ukusetyenziswa kwe-aniline esezantsi kuncinci. I-80% ye-aniline isetyenziselwa ukuveliswa kwe-MDI, i-15% isetyenziselwa i-rubber additives industry, kwaye ezinye zisetyenziselwa kwiinkalo zedayi, amayeza kunye nezitshabalalisi. Ngokwezibalo zemichiza ye-intanethi, ukusuka kwi-2021 ukuya ku-2023, i-MDI iya kuba nokwanda kweetoni eziphantse zibe zizigidi ezi-2 zesakhono semveliso kwaye iya kwetyisa i-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo wemveliso ye-aniline. Izongezo zerabha zisetyenziswa ikakhulu kwimveliso yamatayara kwaye ziqhagamshelwe ngakumbi kwimarike yeemoto. Kwixesha lasemva kobhubhani, zombini iimoto kunye namatayara ziye zaphinda zabuyela kwinqanaba elithile. Kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yezongezo zerabha iya kunyuka ngokulinganayo. Nangona kunjalo, ngoSeptemba ka-2020, i-European Union yabhengeza ukuba i-aniline ludidi lwesi-2 lwe-carcinogen kunye nodidi lwe-2 ye-teratogen, kwaye kuyacetyiswa ukuba ithintelwe ukusetyenziswa kwezinye iithoyi. Ngexesha elifanayo, ezininzi iimpahla zokugqoka nazo zifake i-aniline kuluhlu lwezinto ezithintelweyo kwiminyaka yamuva. Njengoko iimfuno zabathengi zokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nokunyuka kwempilo, indawo esezantsi ye-aniline iya kuba phantsi kwezithintelo ezithile.

Ngokuphathelene nokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle, ilizwe lam lithengisa ngaphandle kwe-aniline. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle wenze malunga ne-8% yemveliso yonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo ubonise ukuhla unyaka nonyaka. Ukongeza kokunyuka kwemfuno yasekhaya, ubhubhani omtsha wesithsaba, iirhafu ezongezelelweyo ezibekwe yi-United States, kunye ne-Indian anti-dumping zezona zizathu zokunciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwe-aniline kwamanye amazwe. Idatha ye-Customs ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-2020 kuya kuba yi-158,000 yeetoni, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka we-21%. Awona mazwe athumela ngaphandle aquka iHungary, iIndiya kunye neSpain. I-Wanhua Bosu inesixhobo se-MDI e-Hungary, kwaye kukho imfuno ethile ye-aniline yasekhaya. Nangona kunjalo, isityalo se-Bosu siceba ukwandisa umthamo we-aniline kulo nyaka, kwaye umthamo wasekhaya we-aniline wasekhaya uya kuncipha ngakumbi ngelo xesha.

Ngokubanzi, ukunyuka okubukhali kwimakethi ye-aniline kuqhutywe zizibonelelo ezininzi malunga neendleko kunye nokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Ngexesha elifutshane, imarike inyuke kakhulu kwaye imingcipheko yokuwa nangaliphi na ixesha; ekuhambeni kwexesha, i-downstream ixhaswa yimfuno ephezulu ye-MDI , Imarike iya kuba nethemba kwiminyaka eyi-1-2 ezayo. Nangona kunjalo, ngokuqiniswa kokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo lwasekhaya kunye nokugqitywa kokudityaniswa kwe-aniline-MDI, indawo yokuhlala yezinye iifektri iya kucudiswa, kwaye ukuxinwa kwezoshishino kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke ngakumbi.