Ukusukela ngo-2022, iimpawu zexesha elingekho phezulu lepetroli kunye nedizili ziya zisiba ncinci. Imarike "yokunyuka ngaphezu kokulindela, ukuwa ngaphantsi kokwenyani" kuqhelekile, ngakumbi ngo-2023, xa iziganeko zempilo yoluntu zinempembelelo encinci kwimarike, eli nqaku libonakala ngokucacileyo. Umkhwa wemarike awukho ngokwekhadi eliqhelekileyo, kwaye ke sixela kwangaphambili imarike kunye nokuba uqale phi?

Indlela yentengiso engaqhelekanga kwikota yesithathu yalo nyaka kunye nekota yesine yemarike ibonakaliswe ngokucacileyo, kujongwe emva kwikota yesithathu, uJulayi yayilixesha lonyaka ledizili, amaxabiso edizili eShandong kufuneka abe nempembelelo embi xa sele ehlile. 6700 yuan/toni, kodwa embindini kaJulayi ngomyalelo omfutshane ngenxa yokuhanjiswa kwenani elikhulu lempahla, ukunyuswa kwengqondo yentengiso kunye nolindelo lwexesha eliphakamileyo eliqhutywa ngamaxabiso enyuka yonke indlela, Kwaye ukonyuka kwexabiso kwathatha ukuya kuthi ga kwisiqingatha esinye nesiqingatha. iinyanga. Emva kokungena kwixesha eliphakamileyo lemveli "yegolide elithoba isilivere elineshumi", ixabiso lehla yonke indlela, ukusuka kwi-8050 yuan / toni ngoSeptemba ukuya kwi-7350 yuan / ton yangoku, uluhlu lwe-700 yuan / ton.

Ngaphantsi kweemarike ezingaqhelekanga, ukusuka kweyiphi imbono esifanele sigxininise ngayo ukuqikelela imarike yexesha elizayo? Iziseko ezisisiseko? Imeko yengqondo? Okanye iindaba zemarike? Ayihambelani kwizigaba ezahlukeneyo. Kweli nqanaba, ukufundwa kwengqondo yentengiso kunye neendaba zentengiso kubaluleke kakhulu kunokufundwa kwezinto ezisisiseko.

Ngokwembono yemarike yangoku, izinto ezisisiseko ziye zabaluleka kangako. Eyokuqala kukuba iindaba ezilungileyo zokunciphisa i-oyile kunye ne-diesel kwi-refinery yokuqala ziye zagaywa kwangaphambili, kwaye imarike yayinokuthi isebenzise ezi ndaba ukuze zenze i-wave, kodwa ixabiso leoli ekrwada alizange liwele yonke indlela. ukucima umlilo. Okwesibini kukuba kwi-inertia yoshishino lwemarike, i-petroli kunye ne-diesel market inikwe ngokugqithiseleyo, kwaye amandla oyilo lwangoku lwe-atmospheric yase-China kunye ne-vacuum isondele kwi-1 yezigidigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka, kwaye ukucuthwa kwemveliso ye-10% -20% kuya ayibangeli unikezelo lwemarike oluqinileyo. Ngoko ke, kweli nqanaba lemarike, impembelelo esisiseko kwimarike iye yahlanjululwa, kwaye endaweni yoko, imarike ayithembisi, ebonakala ngakumbi emva kokuba i-oyile ekrwada iwele kakhulu kodwa i-petroli kunye ne-diesel ayizange ilandele, kwaye Ipetroli kunye nedizili azikhange zilandele ngexesha, nto leyo eye yanyusa i-pessimism yeshishini, ivula indawo yokuba ixabiso lehle kwakhona.

Xa imarike iphinda ibuyele kade, ixhomekeke kwimiba emibini, okokuqala, linda amaxabiso eoli ekrwada ukuba ehle. Okwangoku, izinto ezisisiseko ze-oyile ekrwada ziya ziwohloka, kwaye ipleyiti ye-oyile ekrwada kufuneka inike ingqwalasela kumngcipheko wokulungiswa okuthe kratya kolu lwaza lweenzuzo emva kukaJulayi. Kwaye umphumo wentlanganiso yomphathiswa we-OPEC + ngoNovemba 26, ukwandiswa kwexesha elibekiweyo okanye ukunqunyulwa kwemveliso encinci kunokuqhubeka nokuxhasa ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwamaxabiso eoli, kodwa ukuphakama okupheleleyo kulinganiselwe, ngokuchaseneyo, ukuba iqala ukunyuka ngokuthe ngcembe. imveliso ukuhlawulela imveliso, i-oyile ekrwada inokujongana nenqanaba elikhulu lomngcipheko ophantsi. Ngamafutshane, umngcipheko ongalunganga we-oyile ekrwada awukakhululwa. Okwesibini, linda uvakalelo lwemarike ukuba luzinze. Ukuba amaxabiso epetroli kunye nedizili ayaqhubeka nokuhla, umsantsa phakathi kwepetroli kunye nedizili kunye nokuqhekeka kwe-oyile ekrwada kwakhona kwawa kwinqanaba eliphantsi ngokwentelekiso, i-pessimism yentengiso inokukhutshwa, ukuze ulungiselele. iliza elilandelayo lemarike, kunye nemood brewing endaweni ingaba neemeko zexesha elide zokunyusa. Ngokomntu, kulindeleke ukuba igagasi elilandelayo lemarike liza kuba phakathi kuDisemba, kwaye eli hlabathi lemarike liya kunyuswa ngokugcinwa kwempahla ngaphambi kokuphela kokuhla okungalunganga ngaphezu kweenyanga ezimbini.