[Intshayelelo] : Kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023, intsingiselo iyonke yekamva lemethanol yasekhaya yehla kuqala yaze yavuka, kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ingqiqo eqinisekileyo engenamkhawulo yomahluko wamaxabiso wangoku yenze inzuzo entle, kunye nokuhanjiswa iimpahla zaqhubeka ziqina, zenza isiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ngokusisiseko nyanga zonke phantsi kokusebenza okuthambileyo; I-futures yabuyela emva kwikota yesithathu, kodwa i-port yavula imowudi yokugcina eyongezelelweyo, kwaye indawo yaphela iphethini yeprimiyamu ukuya kwiinyanga ezili-10.

Utshintsho lwentsebenzo yemarike enyakeni lunokwahlulwa lube ngamanqanaba amabini:

Inqanaba lokuqala (ngoJanuwari 1 - Juni 12) : eli nqanaba lokutshatyalaliswa kwexabiso leoli lamazwe ngamazwe lawa, nangona kwakukho i-rebound ebukhali ngexesha lokusika imveliso ye-Opec, kodwa ixesha lalifutshane, kwaye ngokukhawuleza lawa kwakhona ngenxa yobunzima bokulandela imfuno. -phezulu. Ikamva leMethanol kweli nqanaba lengqiqo yorhwebo yi-oyile ekrwada, i-oyile ekrwada i-oyile ekrwada, i-United States inzala yokunyuka komjikelo kunye nezinye izinto ezinkulu kunye neendleko (oko kukuthi, amalahle), amaxabiso amalahle ayaqhubeka nokuwa (le network ilandelela i-Inner Mongolia ukuya kumzi-mveliso wamalahle. ukuya kweyona iphantsi kufutshane ne-620 yuan/toni), ixhasa ukuhamba kwemali kwamashishini kwindawo yemveliso ukuba ibuyiselwe, ibonelele ngokulindelekileyo phantsi koxinzelelo lwediski nokuba iphantsi esitsha, eyona iphantsi yawela kwi-yuan ka-1953/yetoni ngoJuni.

Inqanaba lesibini (Juni 13 - Septemba 28) : eli nqanaba ikamva le-methanol liphantsi, ukuhla okugudileyo okubangelwa yi-logic yeendleko kuphelile, idiski yabonisa inkxaso eqinile kwi-1950-2000 yuan / ton, kunye neyona nto iphambili yokuthengisa i-rebound. kwakulindeleke kwimfuno. I-oyile ekrwada kumxholo wobonelelo oluphantsi kunye nemfuno egqithileyo ebilindelwe, ekhokelela ekuphelisweni koluhlu oluqhubekayo, ukuxhasa ukuphindaphindwa okunamandla kumaxabiso e-oyile; I-Methanol ngokwayo iyonke ibonelelo kunye nemfuno ephindwe kabini, ukubonelelwa komhlaba jikelele kwempahla kunye nezixhobo ezitsha ziye zafika, kodwa i-inventory iyaqhubeka ikwimeko ephantsi, imarike iyaqonda ukuba imfuno yendabuko ephantsi komlambo izinzile; Ngelo xesha, nangona izinga eliphezulu lokunikezelwa kwempahla yokungenisa elizweni li-1.3-1.4 yezigidi zeetoni / ngenyanga, isiseko esisezantsi se-inventory kwisigaba sokuqala senza ukuba imarike icinge ukuba uxinzelelo lwendawo ye-port alunkulu, kunye nokunikezelwa kwempahla ejikelezayo. iqinile. Xa kudityaniswe nolindelo lokuqalisa kwakhona kweXingxing kunye neShenghong kunye nokuma okubambekayo okulandelayo, itafile yezibuko idinga ukuxhaswa kukunyuswa kabini kwemethanol kwimacro kunye nemfuno yayo. Ngomhla we-19 kuSeptemba, elona xabiso liphezulu libuyela kwi-2662 yuan/ton.

Ukukhangela phambili kwikota yesine, unikezelo lokungenisa ukusuka ngo-Oktobha ukuya kuNovemba lusagcinwa kwizinga eliphezulu ngaphezu kweetoni ze-1.3 yezigidi, nangona imarike kulindeleke ukuba inciphise phantsi kweempembelelo ezimbi ze-Iran yezithintelo zegesi ngoDisemba, kodwa ukugcinwa kwexesha lonyaka. ubunzulu okanye ngaphantsi kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo. Ukongeza, ixabiso lentengiso yelizwe ngo-2023 belikwimeko eyomeleleyo, kwaye nomthamo wokubuyela umva ukuya eJiangxi, eGuangxi naseHunan kuye kwenzeka rhoqo eMzantsi China. Kulindeleke ukuba ebusika ka-2023, ipateni yengingqi inokuba yahlukile kwiminyaka edlulileyo, umahluko ixabiso phakathi kwelizwe kunye ne-East China amazibuko kunokuba nzima ukuba banzi ukuya kumhlaba wemithwalo arbitrage umthamo wezibuko, ibhodi elizayo igcina ixabiso. wempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle, enoxinzelelo oluphezulu lonikezelo, kunye nenkxaso yeendleko zamandla eziziswa ngamalahle kunye ne-oyile ekrwada, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikamva lemethanol kwikota yesine okanye amathuba amakhulu okuguquguquka okubuthathaka.