[Intshayelelo]: Kwikota ezintathu zokuqala zowama-2023, umkhwa jikelele wekamva le-methanol yasekhaya wehla kuqala waza wanyuka, kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ingqiqo engapheliyo yomahluko wamaxabiso angoku yenza inzuzo entle, kwaye ukujikeleza kweempahla kwaqhubeka kuqinile, okwenza isiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ngokusisiseko rhoqo ngenyanga phantsi kokusebenza okuthambileyo; I-Futures ibuye kwakhona kwikota yesithathu, kodwa izibuko lavula imo yokugcina eqokelelweyo, kwaye indawo yaphelisa iphethini yeprimiyamu ukuya kuthi ga kwiinyanga ezili-10.

Utshintsho kwindlela yokusebenza kwemarike enyakeni lunokwahlulwa lube ngamanqanaba amabini:

Inqanaba lokuqala (ngoJanuwari 1 - Juni 12): eli nqanaba lokwehla kwamaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe lehlile, nangona bekukho ukwehla okukhulu ngexesha lokunciphisa imveliso ye-Opec, kodwa ixesha lalifutshane, kwaye kungekudala lehla kwakhona ngenxa yobunzima bokulandela imfuno. Ikamva le-Methanol kweli nqanaba le-logic ephambili yorhwebo yioyile ekrwada, umjikelo wokunyuka kwenzala yase-United States kunye nezinye izinto ezinkulu kunye neendleko (oko kukuthi, amalahle), amaxabiso amalahle ayaqhubeka nokuhla (le nethwekhi ilandelela i-Inner Mongolia ukuya kumalahle efektri ehle aye kweyona iphantsi kufutshane ne-620 yuan/ton), ixhasa ukuhamba kwemali kwamashishini kwindawo yemveliso ukuba abuyele kwimeko yesiqhelo, ukubonelela ngolindelo phantsi koxinzelelo lwediski nokuba iphantsi elitsha, eliphantsi lehle laya kwi-1953 yuan/ton ngoJuni.

Inqanaba lesibini (Juni 13 - Septemba 28): eli nqanaba ikamva le-methanol liye lehla, ukwehla okuthe tye okubangelwe yingqiqo yeendleko kuphelile, idiski ibonise inkxaso enamandla ngo-1950-2000 yuan/ton, kwaye ingqiqo ephambili yorhwebo yokubuyela umva yayilindelwe kwimfuno. Ioyile ekrwada kwimeko yokunikezelwa okuphantsi kunye nemfuno idlule okulindelweyo, nto leyo ebangele ukuncipha okuqhubekayo kwempahla, ixhasa ukubuyela umva okunamandla kwamaxabiso eoyile; I-Methanol ngokwayo yinkxaso iyonke kunye nemfuno ephindwe kabini, ukunikezelwa kwesitokhwe kunye nezixhobo ezintsha kwilizwekazi kuye kwafika, kodwa uluhlu luyaqhubeka nokuba kwimeko ephantsi, imakethi iyaqonda ukuba imfuno yendabuko esezantsi izinzile; Kwangaxeshanye, nangona inqanaba eliphezulu lokunikezelwa kokungeniswa liyi-1.3-1.4 yezigidi zeetoni ngenyanga, isiseko esiphantsi sempahla kwinqanaba lokuqala senza imakethi icinge ukuba uxinzelelo lwendawo yezibuko alukhulu, kwaye ukunikezelwa kweempahla ezijikelezayo kuncinci. Kunye nolindelo lokuqalisa kwakhona kweXingxing kunye neShenghong kunye nokufika okubalulekileyo okulandelayo, itafile yezibuko kufuneka ixhaswe kukunyuka kabini kwe-methanol kwi-macro kunye nemfuno yayo. Nge-19 kaSeptemba, i-rebound ephezulu ukuya kwi-2662 yuan/ton.

Sijonge phambili kwikota yesine, ukuhanjiswa kwempahla evela ku-Okthobha ukuya kuNovemba kusagcinwe kwinqanaba eliphezulu elingaphezulu kwe-1.3 yezigidi zeetoni, nangona kulindeleke ukuba imakethi inciphe phantsi kwempembelelo embi yemida yegesi yase-Iran ngoDisemba, kodwa amandla okugcina igesi ngexesha lonyaka okanye angaphantsi kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo. Ukongeza, ixabiso lemarike yelizwekazi ngo-2023 libe kwimeko enamandla, kwaye nomthamo wokubuyela umva eJiangxi, eGuangxi naseHunan uye wehla rhoqo eMzantsi China. Kulindeleke ukuba ebusika bowama-2023, iphethini yengingqi inokwahluka kwiminyaka edlulileyo, umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kwamazibuko elizwekazi kunye nelaseMpuma China unokuba nzima ukuwandisa ukuya kumthamo wezibuko lempahla yelizwekazi i-arbitrage, ibhodi yekamva igcina ixabiso leempahla ezingenisiweyo, elinoxinzelelo oluphezulu lobonelelo, kunye nenkxaso yeendleko zamandla eziziswa ngamalahle kunye neoyile eluhlaza, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikamva le-methanol kwikota yesine okanye amathuba amakhulu okuguquguquka okubuthathaka.