Ngowama-2023, imakethi ye-MMA ifumene amaza amane eemarike ezikhulayo ngokubanzi, ikakhulu ngenxa yezinto ezibalulekileyo zokwaphula umkhwa wesiqhelo, njengokongeza kwiingozi zokulungiswa ezicwangcisiweyo kwifektri, ezihamba nokupaka ngequbuliso, ukubonelela ngemarike kwaqiniswa ukuxhasa imakethi amaxesha amaninzi, apho imakethi yaseMpuma China yadlula kwi-"12000" okanye ngaphezulu amaxesha amane, ukuphela kwemarike kwaqala, ireferensi yemakethi yaseMpuma China yi-12800 yuan/ton kufutshane. Ukuvulwa kuka-2024 kwaqala, kwavela i-high entsha, ukusukela nge-9 kaJanuwari, imakethi yaseMpuma China ikwi-13,100 yuan/ton ukususela kwixabiso le-near, kusekho ezinye izibonelelo eziphezulu, imakethi yaseMzantsi China ive ukuba amanye amaxabiso aphezulu athengiswa kwi-14,000 yuan/ton okanye ngaphezulu.

Njengoko kunokubonwa kumfanekiso ongentla, imakethi inyuke kakhulu ukusukela ngoDisemba ka-2023, inendlela ende ebanzi, kwaye ixabiso liye laqhubeka lidlula kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye ixabiso lokuqala ngo-2024 lifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha kunyaka, nto leyo ephinde yavuselela ulwazi lweli shishini.

1, inkxalabo ephambili yemarike ekhulayo: Izinga lokusetyenziswa komthamo wefektri ye-MMA liphantsi

Ukususela ngo-2023, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwishishini le-MMA lihlale likwi-40%-60%, nto leyo iphantsi kakhulu, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla liye lehla ngakumbi ukusuka ngoDisemba ukuya kuJanuwari 2024, nto leyo ekwayeyona nto ibalulekileyo ebangela ukuba imakethi inyuke.

2. Inkxalabo 2: Ubudlelwane bobonelelo kunye nemfuno yengingqi, indlela yobonelelo kunye notshintsho lomahluko wamaxabiso

Ngowama-2023, umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kweMpuma China kunye noMzantsi China wancipha, apho kongezwe iitoni ezingama-305,000 zamandla amatsha emveliso kulo nyaka, iitoni ezili-100,000 eMntla-mpuma China, iitoni ezili-120,000 eMzantsi China kunye neetoni ezingama-85,000 eMntla China. Emva kokukhula kwamandla emveliso, indlela yokuthutha emiselweyo phakathi kwemimandla, ubudlelwane bomahluko wamaxabiso, kunye nobudlelwane bokubonelela kunye nemfuno phakathi kwemimandla eyahlukeneyo yaphulwa. Umzekelo, umntla-mpuma awusathumeli iinqanawa eMzantsi China, kwaye umahluko wamaxabiso wengingqi uyaxela. Njengoko kunokubonwa kwitheyibhile elandelayo, inzuzo ye-arbitrage yeMpuma kunye noMzantsi China iye yancipha kancinci kancinci, ikakhulu ngenxa yotshintsho kubudlelwane bokubonelela kunye nemfuno yengingqi.

Amanye amanqanaba omgangatho wokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwishishini le-MMA anxulumene ngokusondeleyo nomgangatho wokusetyenziswa kwamandla e-acrylonitrile, nto leyo ekwayeyona nto ixhalabisayo ngo-2023, kwaye ukubonelela kunye nemfuno kulawula umkhwa wemarike ye-MMA, kwaye impembelelo yokuqalisa isixhobo yeyona icacileyo. Emva kwezinto ezichaphazela ukuqala komsebenzi ukongeza kwiimeko ezingalindelekanga, kukwakho noxinzelelo oluziswa yimeko yenzuzo yeemveliso zechungechunge lwemizi-mveliso emva kohlengahlengiso olucwangcisiweyo, njengomahluko wenzuzo ye-acrylonitrile ngamaxesha athile, kunye nokuqala kokwehla.

4, ingqwalasela 4: Utshintsho olusisiseko luphula indlela yokucinga eqhelekileyo kutshanje imakethi ibiphezulu

Izinto ezisisiseko njengeyona nto iphambili echaphazela ixabiso, kufanelekile ukulinika ingqalelo, isizathu esiphambili sokuba imakethi inyuke amaxesha amaninzi ngo-2023 yinkxaso yokubonelela, ixesha lokuphumla alibuthathaka, ixesha lokuphumla aliphumeleli, kwaye utshintsho olusisiseko luye lwaphula indlela eqhelekileyo yokucinga. Njengokufunwa kwexesha lokuphumla kwikota yesine, ukuphela konyaka kudla ngokuba lula, kwaye ukuhlangana kuphele ekupheleni kuka-2023.

Kwimarike yexesha elifutshane, imeko yokunqongophala kobonelelo kunzima ukuyiphelisa ngokupheleleyo, ezinye iifektri zilibaziseka ukuqala kwakhona, ukufika kwempahla engaphelelanga kwinqanawa echwebeni kulibaziseka, kunye nomkhwa wemarike okanye ukugcina ithoni eqinileyo. Qhubeka unika ingqalelo kutshintsho olutshintshayo lwezixhobo kunye nokuguquguquka korhwebo phantsi.