Ngomhla we-17 kaNovemba ka-2020, i-parity esembindini yereyithi yokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwebhanki yangaphandle yayiyi: 1 idola yaseMelika ukuya kwi-RMB 6.5762, ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-286 ukusuka kusuku lwangaphambili lokuthengisa, ukufikelela kwi-6.5 yuan. Ukongeza, amaxabiso otshintshiselwano lwe-RMB elunxwemeni nakwi-offshore ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika zombini zinyuke zaya kutsho kwi-6.5 yuan era.

Lo myalezo awuthunyelwanga izolo kuba i-6.5 enokwenzeka ikwangumntu odlulayo. Phantsi kobhubhani, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina lomelele, kwaye kuqinisekile ukuba i-RMB iya kuqhubeka isomelela.

Dlulisela phambili uluvo oluvela kwingcaphephe:

Ngaba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB ngokubhekiselele kwi-dollar yase-US luya kunyuka kwixesha le-6.5?

Amazwi Osapho

Kulindeleke ukuba i-trend of appreciation ye-RMB ayiyi kutshintsha, kodwa izinga lokuxabisa liya kuwa.

Ngokutsho kweendaba ezikhutshwe yi-China Foreign Exchange Trading Centre: Ngomhla we-17 kuNovemba, i-parity esembindini yezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwebhanki yangaphandle yayiyi-dollar eyi-1 ukuya kwi-RMB 6.5762, ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-286 ukusuka kwixesha elidlulileyo. usuku lokurhweba ukuya kwixesha le-yuan eyi-6.5. Ukongeza, amaxabiso otshintshiselwano lwe-RMB elunxwemeni nakwi-offshore ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika zombini zinyuke zaya kutsho kwi-6.5 yuan era. Okulandelayo, ngaba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB luya kuqhubeka nokunyuka?

Izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-renminbi liye laphakama kwixesha le-6.5, kwaye kufuneka libe yinto enokwenzeka kakhulu yokugcina ukunyusa ukunyuka kwinqanaba elilandelayo. Kukho izizathu ezine.

Okokuqala, iqondo lentengiso yezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB liye lenyuka ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye izinto zokungenelela kwabantu kwisebe lolawulo lwangaphandle lwebhanki ephakathi ziye zapheliswa. Ekupheleni kuka-Okthobha kulo nyaka, unobhala wemalike yotshintshiselwano lwamazwe angaphandle ukuzeyisa ibhengeze ukuba ibhanki yekoteyishini yexabiso eliphakathi le-RMB ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika, ngokusekwe kwizigwebo zayo kwiziseko zoqoqosho kunye neemeko zentengiso. ithathe inyathelo lokuqala lokulungisa “inguqu” kwimodeli yexabiso elilinganayo leRMB ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika. I-Cycle factor" iyacima ukuba isetyenziswe. Oku kuthetha ukuba elona nyathelo libalulekileyo lithathiweyo ekuthengisweni kwezinga leRMB. Kwixesha elizayo, ukuba nokwenzeka kokuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini kwireyithi yeRMB iya kwanda. Ngokusisiseko akukho zithintelo ezenziweyo zoxabiso oluqhubekayo lwe-RMB. Oku kudala iimeko ezifanelekileyo zokuxabisa okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB.

Okwesibini, i-China ngokusisiseko iyisusile impembelelo embi yesibetho esitsha sesithsaba, kwaye umfutho wayo wophuhliso loqoqosho ukwindawo yesibini kwihlabathi. Ngokuchasene noko, ukuchacha koqoqosho lwamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika kuhamba kancinci, ngakumbi imeko yase-United States isenzima kakhulu, nto leyo eyenza ukuba idola iqhubeke. Ukushukuma kumjelo obuthathaka. Ngokucacileyo, ngenxa yenkxaso yezoqoqosho yaseTshayina esisiseko, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB liya kuqhubeka nokunyuka.

Okwesithathu, enye into eye yadlala indima ekunyuseni izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-renminbi yi-symposium eququzelelwe ngokudibeneyo yiBhanki ePhakamileyo kunye neKomishoni yoLawulo lwee-Asethi kunye noLawulo lwe-State-owned ngoNovemba 12 ngomxholo othi "ukuququzelela urhwebo kunye norhwebo. utyalo-mali ngamashishini asebenzisa irenminbi ukuwela imida”. Uluhlu lweempawu ezintle: Ibhanki ephakathi ichaze ukuba iqulunqe ngokudibeneyo "Isaziso sokuPhucula imiGaqo-nkqubo ye-RMB ye-Cross-border ukuxhasa ukuzinzisa uRhwebo lwaNgaphandle kunye noTyalo-mali lwaNgaphandle" kunye neKomishoni yoPhuhliso kunye noHlengahlengiso, uMphathiswa wezoRhwebo, kunye ne-SASAC. Amaxwebhu epolisi aza kukhutshwa kungekudala. Oku kuthetha ukuba imakethi yezemali yelizwe lam iya kuvulwa ngakumbi kumazwe angaphandle, kwaye imarike yeRMB engaphesheya nayo iya kuphuhliswa ngamandla. Iza kukhuthaza nokuvulwa kwemarike yemali ye-RMB elunxwemeni kwaye inyuse umthamo kunye nobunzulu bemalike yemali ye-RMB ekude nonxweme. Ngokukodwa, iya kuqhubeka nokubambelela ekukhethweni kweemarike kunye nokuzimela ngokuzimeleyo kwamashishini, ukuqhubeka nokwandisa indawo yomgaqo-nkqubo wokusetyenziswa kwe-RMB ye-cross-border, kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwe-RMB ye-cross-border kunye ne-offshore clearing. Okwangoku, iqhutywa yimfuno yemarike, ukusetyenziswa kwe-renminbi kumazwe ngamazwe kuye kwenza inkqubela ebonakalayo. I-renminbi sele iyimali yentlawulo yesibini enkulu yaseTshayina enqumla imida. Iirisithi ezinqamlezileyo kunye neentlawulo ze-akhawunti ye-renminbi ngaphezu kwesinye kwisithathu seerisithi ezinqamlezileyo zaseTshayina kunye neentlawulo zemali zasekhaya nezangaphandle. I-RMB izibandakanye nebhaskithi yemali ye-SDR kwaye iye yaba yimali yesihlanu enkulu yehlabathi yentlawulo yemali kunye nemali esemthethweni enguvimba wotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle.

Okwesine, kwaye okona kubaluleke kakhulu, ngoNovemba 15, amazwe alishumi ase-ASEAN kunye namazwe angama-15 aquka iChina, iJapan, iSouth Korea, i-Australia kunye neNew Zealand ngokusemthethweni isayinwe i-RCEP, ephawula ukugqitywa ngokusemthethweni kwesivumelwano esikhulu sorhwebo samahhala. Oku akuyi kukhuthaza kuphela ukwakhiwa koLuntu lwezoQoqosho lwase-ASEAN, kodwa luya kongeza isantya esitsha kuphuhliso lwengingqi kunye nokuchuma, kwaye luya kuba yinjini ebalulekileyo yokukhula kwehlabathi. Ngokukodwa, i-China, njengelizwe lesibini ngobukhulu kwezoqoqosho, ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kuba ngundoqo we-RCEP, eya kuba nefuthe elinamandla kutshintshiselwano lwezoqoqosho kunye norhwebo lwamazwe e-RCEP kwaye luzuze amazwe athatha inxaxheba. Kwangaxeshanye, ikwavumela i-RMB ukuba idlale indima ebaluleke ngakumbi ekuhlalisweni kwezorhwebo kunye nentlawulo yamazwe athatha inxaxheba e-RCEP, eya kuzisa iinzuzo ezininzi ekukhuthazeni ukwanda kwe-China yokungenisa kunye norhwebo lokuthumela ngaphandle, ukutsala amazwe e-RCEP ukuba atyale imali kuwo. I-China, kunye nokwandisa imfuno ye-RMB evela kumazwe e-RCEP. Esi siphumo siya kunika ukonyuswa okuthile kwindlela eqhubekayo yokunyuka kwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB.

Ngamafutshane, nangona izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-renminbi liye langena kwixesha le-6.5, ngokuqwalasela amathuba okurhweba ngaphandle kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nemiba yomgaqo-nkqubo, kusekho indawo yokuxabisa okulandelayo kwereyithi yerenminbi. Kulindeleke ukuba umkhwa wokuxabisa i-renminbi awuyi kutshintsha, kodwa izinga lokuxabisa liya kuncipha; ngakumbi ubhubhani wehlabathi Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokuphindaphinda kunye nokuziva umngcipheko ongathintekiyo, kulindelekile ukuba i-RMB iya kugcina intsingiselo ezinzileyo neyomeleleyo phantsi kwenkxaso yeenzuzo zayo ezisisiseko.