Ngomhla we-17 kweyeNkanga ngo-2020, umlinganiselo ophakathi wezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle phakathi kweebhanki yayiyi: idola yaseMelika e-1 ukuya kwi-RMB 6.5762, ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-286 ukusuka kusuku lorhwebo lwangaphambili, kwafikelela kwixesha le-yuan eyi-6.5. Ukongeza, amazinga okutshintshiselana nge-RMB yolwandle kunye neyolwandle xa kuthelekiswa nedola yaseMelika omabini anyukile aya kwixesha le-yuan eyi-6.5.

Lo myalezo awuthunyelwanga izolo kuba amathuba okuba i-6.5 ikwangulowo udlulayo. Phantsi kobhubhane, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luqinile, kwaye kuyacaca ukuba i-RMB iya kuqhubeka nokuqina.

Thumela uluvo oluvela kwingcali:

Ngaba izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB xa lithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika liza kunyuka liye kwixesha le-6.5?

Amazwi Osapho

Kulindeleke ukuba umkhwa woxabiso lwe-RMB awuzukutshintsha, kodwa izinga loxabiso liza kwehla.

Ngokutsho kweendaba ezikhutshwe yiZiko lokuThengisa iiNtengiso zaMazwe ngaMazwe laseTshayina: Ngomhla we-17 kweyeNkanga, ukulingana okuphambili kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle phakathi kweebhanki yayiyidola yaseMelika e-1 ukuya kwi-RMB 6.5762, ukunyuka kwamanqaku angama-286 ukusuka kusuku lorhwebo lwangaphambili ukuya kwixesha le-yuan eyi-6.5. Ukongeza, amazinga okutshintshiselana kwe-RMB elunxwemeni nangaphandle kwelizwe xa kuthelekiswa nedola yaseMelika omabini anyukile aya kwixesha le-yuan eyi-6.5. Okulandelayo, ngaba izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB liza kuqhubeka linyuka?

Izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-renminbi linyuke laya kwi-6.5 era, kwaye kufanele ukuba lithuba elinokwenzeka kakhulu lokugcina umkhwa wokunyuka kwinqanaba elilandelayo. Kukho izizathu ezine.

Okokuqala, izinga lokuthengiswa kwezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB liye landa kancinci kancinci, kwaye izinto ezibangela ukungenelela kwabantu lisebe lolawulo lwangaphandle lebhanki ephakathi ziye zasuswa ngokusisiseko. Ekupheleni kuka-Okthobha kulo nyaka, unobhala wendlela yokuziqeqesha kwimarike yezemali yangaphandle ubhengeze ukuba ibhanki yekowuteshini yezinga eliphakathi le-RMB xa ithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika, ngokusekelwe kwizigqibo zayo kwiziseko zoqoqosho kunye neemeko zemarike, ithathe inyathelo lokuthatha inyathelo lokujongana "nokwahlukileyo" kwimodeli yexabiso eliphakathi le-RMB xa ithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika. I-Cycle factor" iyaphela. Oku kuthetha ukuba inyathelo elibaluleke kakhulu lithathiwe ekuthengisweni kwezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB. Kwixesha elizayo, amathuba okutshintshatshintsha kabini kwizinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB aya kwanda. Akukho miqobo yokwenziwa yokwanda okuqhubekayo kwe-RMB. Oku kudala iimeko ezilungileyo zokuqhubeka nokuxabisa i-RMB.

Okwesibini, iTshayina ngokusisiseko isuse impembelelo embi yobhubhane omtsha we-crown, kwaye isantya sayo sophuhliso loqoqosho asifani nanto ehlabathini. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ukubuyela koqoqosho kumazwe aseYurophu naseMelika kuhamba kancinci, ingakumbi imeko eMelika isenzima kakhulu, nto leyo eyenza idola iqhubeke. Ihamba ngendlela ebuthathaka. Ngokucacileyo, ngenxa yenkxaso esisiseko yezoqoqosho yaseTshayina, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB liya kuqhubeka linyuka.

Okwesithathu, enye into edlale indima ekunyuseni izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-renminbi yintlanganiso eququzelelwe ngokudibeneyo yiBhanki Ephakathi kunye neKhomishini yoLawulo lweeAsethi zikaRhulumente nge-12 kaNovemba ngomxholo othi "ukwenziwa lula korhwebo notyalo-mali ngamashishini asebenzisa i-renminbi ngaphesheya kwemida". Uthotho lwemiqondiso emihle: Ibhanki ephakathi ithe iqulunqe ngokudibeneyo "Isaziso malunga nokuphucula ngakumbi imigaqo-nkqubo ye-RMB enqamlezileyo ukuxhasa ukuzinza korhwebo lwangaphandle kunye notyalo-mali lwangaphandle" kunye neKhomishini yoPhuhliso noHlaziyo, uMphathiswa wezoRhwebo, kunye ne-SASAC. Amaxwebhu omgaqo-nkqubo aza kukhutshwa kungekudala. Oku kuthetha ukuba imakethi yezemali yelizwe lam iya kuvulelwa ngakumbi kwihlabathi langaphandle, kwaye imakethi ye-RMB ephesheya nayo iya kuphuhliswa ngamandla. Iya kukhuthaza nokuvulwa kwemakethi yezemali ye-RMB ephesheya kwaye yonyuse amandla kunye nobunzulu bemakethi yezemali ye-RMB ephesheya. Ngokukodwa, iya kuqhubeka nokunamathela kwiindlela eziqhutywa yimarike nezizimeleyo zamashishini, iqhubeke nokwenza ngcono imeko-bume yomgaqo-nkqubo wokusetyenziswa kwe-RMB ngaphesheya kwemida, kwaye iphucule ukusebenza kakuhle kwe-RMB enqumla imida kunye nokucoca ulwandle. Okwangoku, ngenxa yemfuno yemarike, ukusetyenziswa kwe-renminbi kwihlabathi liphela kuye kwenza inkqubela phambili enkulu. I-renminbi sele iyimali yesibini ngobukhulu eTshayina yokuhlawula imida. Iirisithi kunye neentlawulo ze-renminbi eziwela imida zithatha ngaphezulu kwesithathu seerisithi kunye neentlawulo zaseTshayina kwiimali zasekhaya nezangaphandle. I-RMB ijoyine ibhaskithi yemali ye-SDR kwaye iye yaba yimali yesihlanu ngobukhulu kwihlabathi liphela yokuhlawula yamazwe ngamazwe kunye nemali esemthethweni yogcino lwemali yangaphandle.

Okwesine, kwaye okona kubaluleke kakhulu, ngoNovemba 15, amazwe alishumi ase-ASEAN kunye namazwe ali-15 aquka iTshayina, iJapan, iSouth Korea, iOstreliya, kunye neNew Zealand asayine ngokusesikweni i-RCEP, nto leyo ebonisa ukuqukunjelwa ngokusesikweni kwesivumelwano esikhulu sorhwebo olukhululekileyo kwihlabathi. Oku akuyi kukhuthaza kuphela ukwakhiwa koMbutho wezoQoqosho we-ASEAN, kodwa kuya kongeza amandla amatsha kuphuhliso lwengingqi kunye nempumelelo, kwaye kuya kuba yinjini ebalulekileyo yokukhula kwehlabathi. Ngokukodwa, iTshayina, njengoqoqosho lwesibini ngobukhulu kwihlabathi, ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kuba yintsika ye-RCEP, eya kuba nefuthe elinamandla lokukhulisa utshintshiselwano lwezoqoqosho kunye norhwebo lwamazwe e-RCEP kwaye incede amazwe athatha inxaxheba. Kwangaxeshanye, ikwavumela i-RMB ukuba idlale indima ebaluleke ngakumbi kwisivumelwano sorhwebo kunye nentlawulo yamazwe athatha inxaxheba kwi-RCEP, eya kuzisa iingenelo ezininzi ekukhuthazeni ukwanda korhwebo olupheleleyo lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kweTshayina, ukutsala amazwe e-RCEP ukuba atyale imali eTshayina, kunye nokwandisa imfuno ye-RMB evela kumazwe e-RCEP. Esi siphumo siya kunika nokunyusa okuthile kwindlela eqhubekayo yokunyuka kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB.

Ngamafutshane, nangona izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-renminbi lingene kwixesha le-6.5, xa kujongwa amathuba orhwebo lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo, kusekho indawo yokunyuka kwezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-renminbi. Kulindeleke ukuba indlela yokuxabisa i-renminbi ayizukutshintsha, kodwa izinga lokuxabisa liza kwehla; ingakumbi ubhubhane wehlabathi. Ngokuchasene nemeko yokubuyela umva kunye nemvakalelo yomngcipheko enganciphisiyo, kulindeleke ukuba i-RMB ihlale izinzile kwaye iqinile phantsi kwenkxaso yeenzuzo zayo ezisisiseko.