Imarike ye-urea yakutshanje ingachazwa njengeyanda ngokuqhubekayo, umkhwa wemarike phantsi kwesikhokelo somphezulu weendaba unyuka kwaye uhla ngokukhawuleza, apho impendulo ecacileyo kukuphawula. Ukuqhutywa komphezulu wemiyalezo yokuprinta akuchaphazeli ngqo ixabiso lemarike langoku, kodwa kungena nakwinqanaba lokubonelela kunye nemfuno yasekhaya kwixesha elizayo. Ukusukela nge-15 ka-Agasti, ixabiso lemarike yeShandong Linyi kwi-2550 yuan/ton, imakethi ye-urea emva kokufumana umkhwa wamaza, inyuke kancinci kancinci yaya kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwisiqingatha senyanga, kwaye uluhlu oluphezulu lokunyuka nokuwa kwisiqingatha senyanga phantse lumalunga ne-200 yuan/ton, impembelelo yecala leemvakalelo imisela ukuba ukuguquguquka kwe-urea kuye kwanda umkhwa, imakethi kufuneka ihambisane nokuguquguquka komoya, Isebenza njani i-news surface kwimarike?

Njengoko umdlalo weendaba zemarike usanda, icala leemvakalelo lithatha ubunzima ngakumbi kwimpembelelo yemarike, kwaye amandla acacileyo kukugweba iimvakalelo kwixesha elizayo lemarike. Xa iindaba zivuthwa kancinci kancinci, isimo sengqondo siba nethemba malunga nemarike yexesha elizayo, kwaye impendulo yangaphakathi yecala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno iya kuba buthathaka, kwaye ukuhanjiswa komyalezo wokumakisha yeyona ndlela ibonakalayo.

Impembelelo yoshicilelo:

I-India lilizwe elithumela i-urea eTshayina, kwaye inani leempahla ezithunyelwa eIndiya limalunga ne-50% yomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso yasekhaya ngonyaka. Ngokwedatha yokuthunyelwa kwemveliso yonyaka ka-2022, umthamo opheleleyo wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso ngo-2022 umalunga ne-2.83 yezigidi zeetoni, apho eyokuqala iseyi-India, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso yi-1.23 yezigidi zeetoni ezingama-900, ebalelwa kwi-43.80% yomthamo opheleleyo wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso. Kukho iintlobo ezimbini zokuthengwa kwemveliso eIndiya: ukuthengwa kwethenda yehlabathi kunye nokuthengwa kwekhontrakthi yexesha elide. Phakathi kwazo, ukubhida kwemveliso yehlabathi kunye nokuthengwa kwemveliso yeyona nto sikhathazeke ngayo. Isizathu sokuba impembelelo yokubhida iqhubeke ukuya kutsho ngo-Agasti nangoSeptemba kungenxa yokusasazeka okuqhubekayo kwamarhe emarike ukuya ekuvulekeni kwezicelo eIndiya, kuze kufikelele kwiindaba zemarike, kwaye ekugqibeleni ukuya kutsho kumhla wokugqibela wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso. Yonke inkqubo iya kuhamba nokuhanjiswa okuqhubekayo komphezulu weendaba, kwaye kwimarike yasekhaya yangoku engaphandle kwexesha, ukubonakala kophawu kushishino kuye kwaphawulwa njengento elungileyo, ngoko ke impendulo yemarike iya kulandela utshintsho lweendaba zentengiso.

Indima ethile yolu shicilelo, enye ibonakala kwixabiso, ibhidi yokungenisa i-urea eIndiya IPL, ifumene abathengisi abangama-23 iyonke, iyonke ifikelela kwiitoni eziyi-3.382,500. Ixabiso eliphantsi kuNxweme oluseMpuma yi-CFR396 USD/ton, kwaye ixabiso eliphantsi kuNxweme oluseNtshona yi-CFR399 USD/ton. Ukufika kwexabiso kunokuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ubungakanani bendawo ye-arbitrage ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, kwaye ixabiso lokuprinta langoku elihambelana nexabiso lefektri yasekhaya kukuba kukho indawo yokuthumela ngaphandle, kodwa ngaphambi kokufika kwexabiso, ishishini lexabiso lokuprinta lexabiso elilindelweyo liphezulu kakhulu, uninzi lwentelekelelo lufikelele kwi-400 US dollars/ton FOB, ngoko ke xa izihlangu zifika, ixabiso labuyela kancinci kwinqanaba elifanelekileyo, ishishini elinesimo sokuhla esinyukayo, ixabiso eliqikelelweyo lemarike yexesha elizayo labuthathaka, kwaye imvakalelo yemarike yehla, kwaye amaxabiso e-urea nawo abonise umjikelo omncinci wokuhla ngeli xesha. Okwesibini kukusebenza kwenani, kwaye ixabiso liyafana, ngaphambi kokuba iindaba zifike, sigcina ingqondo engcono, kwaye iindaba eziqhelekileyo kushishino ngamarhe okubonelela ngemveliso yaseTshayina zinokufikelela kwi-1.1 yezigidi zeetoni, iindaba zikhokelele ekunyukeni kade kwekamva izolo, kwaye impendulo ecacileyo yenani lokuprinta kukubonelela ngemveliso yasekhaya kunye nemfuno, kukubonelela ngemveliso yasekhaya ephezulu yangoku yeNissan, Ukwanda kwenani lokumakisha ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kulibazisa ukudluliselwa koxinzelelo kwicala lokubonelela ngemveliso yabavelisi bangoku, kwaye amaxabiso asekhaya aya kuzisa amanqaku amatsha enkxaso, kwaye abavelisi baphakamise izibonelelo zabo.

Nangona iindaba zokumakisha zinika imakethi ukhuthazo oluthile kwicala leemvakalelo, iingozi azinakutyeshelwa. Okokuqala, unikezelo lwamazwe ngamazwe luya kujongana nethuba lokunyuka emva kokuphela kweshedyuli yokuthumela uphawu, kwaye ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso amazwe ngamazwe akwaziwa. Okwesibini, amandla amatsha emveliso yasekhaya aya kufakelwa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Kurhwebo lwasekhaya, uxinzelelo kwicala lonikezelo luyavela kancinci kancinci, kwaye inkxaso yokuthumela ngaphandle inokunxulunyaniswa kakuhle nolimo lwengqolowa yasekwindla. Yinto ebalulekileyo ekufuneka igxininiswe kuyo. Okwesithathu, impembelelo yezinto ezibalulekileyo ezifana nemigaqo-nkqubo yesizwe ayikamiselwa, kwaye izinto ezifana nexesha lokuhlolwa ngokusemthethweni kunye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwezibuko zasekhaya nazo kufuneka ziqaphele.

Lilonke, imakethi ixhaswa yimpembelelo yoshicilelo kunye nezinye izinto zexesha elifutshane, kwaye ixabiso lisenendawo ephezulu yokusebenza, kodwa umngcipheko wemakethi wexesha elizayo awuguquki, kwaye kuyimfuneko ukunikela ingqalelo ngononophelo kutshintsho oluvela kumphezulu weendaba.